AI is set to cause widespread changes across a wide number of industries. Scarcely a week goes by without a new forecast on the disruptive effects the technology will have in the years to come.
Many studies have focused on professions likely to be disrupted, but a new look at AI's impact on the workforce from Indeed suggests that people could be looking at the issue through the wrong lens. Ultimately, the company says, AI's impact will come down to job skills rather than job titles.
What's more, of the over 2,800 work skills the company assessed, none were deemed "very likely" to be replaced by AI -- and the majority of skills, some 68.7 percent, were found to be "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to be replaced, at least shortly.
"Ultimately, the impact of GenAI on a given occupation will depend on the skills in that occupation that can or cannot be performed well by the technology, both today and in the future," the company wrote in its 2024 AI at Work report.
The report combed through the millions of job postings on Indeed to identify the most commonly requested work skills. Researchers then developed a prompt framework tasking OpenAI's GPT-4o to assess its own ability on each of those skills. Findings were validated by the human researchers and the analysis was run 15 times per skill.
Researchers looked at three abilities for each job skill: theoretical knowledge, real-world problem-solving, and physical presence.
OpenAI's tech gave itself the highest marks overall on theoretical knowledge but admitted it was less adept at solving problems. And, as you might expect, it scored very low on the physical execution of problems, making hands-on jobs (nursing, for instance) less susceptible to the tech.
AI, of course, is improving regularly. Earlier this week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote on his personal blog, "We may have superintelligence [AI that's smarter than humans] in a few thousand days."
Indeed, its report, notes that 29 percent of skills could "potentially" be replaced by AI as it continues to evolve, and if there are changes to workplaces in the future. It did not, however, put a timeline on that possibility.
While Indeed focused on job skills in its report, the company did amalgamate the data it gathered to show the risk to a variety of job types. Accounting occupations were among the most vulnerable, the company found, with AI "possible" or "likely" to replace humans at more than 75 percent of the requested skills commonly found in those job postings. Marketing and advertising occupations followed and software development positions came in third, with 71 percent of the job skills more likely to be replaced by technology.
Cooks, however, were the least likely to face possible replacement, followed by childcare occupations, bus drivers, and nurses. (Just 39 percent of the skills required to be a nurse were found to be possibly or likely to be replaced by AI.)
"In the future, combined with advances in robotics, the tools may become more adept at mimicking and mastering how humans manually apply their skills," the report says. "But as it stands today, GenAI is best suited to applying its skills to help with relatively straightforward work tasks that require only modest problem solving and, most importantly, no hands-on execution."
Adult Gap Years Are On the Rise, but Are They as Good as They Seem?
Here's a non-groundbreaking claim: time off from work is really great. I'll even go out on a (very short) limb and say that most people would agree with me. A few days of paid vacation here and there is nice, restorative even, but now imagine taking off an entire year. An employment hiatus, if you will. Well, that possibility is becoming a reality for some working professionals, because "adult gap years" are rising.
As the name quite literally implies, an adult gap year is effective when people take an entire year off work. The concept originated in Europe, but has quickly made its way stateside, especially since the start of the pandemic, with more and more burned-out millennials, and even some Zoomers, taking sabbaticals and so-called "mini-retirements."
Now, what you do with your year off is entirely up to you — there are no rules, regulations, or restrictions.
Logan is a 34-year-old marketing professional who took an adult gap year from October 2022 until September 2023 to focus on his mental health. "I visited a friend who lives in England for a few months, then another friend who finished up medical school in Italy, then we took a trip to France for a couple days since it's so close by, then I visited my parents in North Carolina," he says. "I also picked up some new hobbies and things I've always wanted to do but never really had the time."
Ashley, on the other hand, is in the midst of her adult gap year. She decided to take the time off to heal from a series of losses. "I never actually thought of it as an adult gap year, because it wasn't something I had started 2024 with the idea of, but it just naturally unfolded for me," the 34-year-old says.
After the passing of a close friend and both of her grandparents and experiencing a pregnancy loss, the small business owner needed to focus on her physical and mental health. "I decided to close my business for some time and just allow myself to intentionally get through the grief process."
Another driving factor for both Logan and Ashley's time away? Burnout. "One or two weeks off wasn't enough for me to actually feel relaxed because I felt exhausted for years," Logan says. The same tracks for Ashley who noticed that her burnout continued to manifest through grief.
But Logan and Ashley aren't the only ones with this experience, because burnout and stress are at an all-time high, according to the American Psychological Association. Of course, the root cause varies, but nearly three in five employees reported negative impacts of work-related stress, including a lack of interest, motivation, and/or energy while on the clock — telltale signs of burnout.
In theory, an entire year off work sounds like an idyllic solution, but is it always the answer? Not necessarily. "When you're burned out, a trip to the beach or another country alone isn't going to fix it," says human resource executive Merary Simeon, PhD.
Whether it's planned way in advance or unplanned due to unforeseeable circumstances, Simeon says the gap year typically involves aggressively saving to have enough money to fund the break from work, which can lead to a serious (and stressful) financial burden.
As a result, it's crucial to have realistic expectations of what you can and cannot afford during your time away. Otherwise, without a plan, Simeon says it's not uncommon for the financial implications to exacerbate your burnout. In a way, it can sort of defeat the purpose.
"A lot of people are attracted to this gap year as a sort of remedy for their burnout, but that pressure to aggressively save all your money for the time away can actually compound the stress," says licensed counselor Joelle Moray. In fact, the lead up period to the time off often replicates the very patterns of hustle culture most are trying to counter, especially when it's at the mercy of your social life, she explains. "There's this notion that a year away will fix the things that are imbalanced in our lives."
To add fuel to the fire, Simeon also notes that burnout can heighten if you're hiding a looming departure from your boss. This rings especially true if there's fear of repercussion or retaliation, which can build resentment, only further worsening the issue, she explains.
But here's the deal: if your desire to take a gap year is solely based on work burnout alone, an extended break isn't going to always fix the issue. "Unless we fundamentally shift the way we approach work and rest regularly, we're actually solving the wrong problem," Moray says. "We have to challenge the idea that rest is a luxury or reward and emphasize that it's a necessity."
All that said, everything is circumstantial, and an adult gap year can certainly be healing in more ways than one. Logan found that the year away was key for self-reflection and self-growth on both a personal and professional level. "I realized that I need to work at places that respect me, and respect that I'm a human being who needs time off," he says. "From my experience, it was definitely worth it."
Ashley has also found her time away to be worthwhile. "Taking this time off has allowed me to heal at a faster rate than if I was going to try and still live out dual identities of being a full-on business owner while also having to grieve," she says. And regarding her return to work, Ashley says, "There's moments when it's more stressful than others, but at the end of the day, I'm a very intuitive person, so I'll know when the time is right."
So, are adult gap years all they're cracked up to be? It depends, and to be honest, it's not that simple, Simeon says. "They exist on a spectrum."
For many, Moray says the idea of extended time away is merely a band-aid for a greater problem that feeds into workplace hustle culture and a lack of work-life balance. For some, like Logan, a formative year away can be an excellent way to regroup and nail down priorities.
And for others, like Ashley, deliberate time off can be healing after a year of hurt. "People need to hear that it's OK to take time for ourselves to rest, relax, and get back to the place we want to be," she says, "so we can be ourselves and share ourselves from a full cup."