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U.S. manufacturers still mired in slump, ISM shows, but Fed rate cuts to offer hope for recovery

  


U.S. stocks are slumping Tuesday following a disappointingly weak start to a week full of updates on the economy.

The S&P 500 was 1.3% lower in morning trading, coming off a winning week that had carried it to the cusp of its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 502 points, or 1.2%, from its own record set on Friday before Monday’s Labor Day holiday. The Nasdaq composite was 1.7% lower, as of 10:15 a.m. Eastern time.

Treasury yields were also sinking in the bond market after a report showed U.S. manufacturing shrank again in August, as it continues to wilt under the weight of high interest rates. Manufacturing has been contracting for most of the past two years, and its performance for August was worse than economists expected.

“Demand remains subdued, as companies show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current federal monetary policy and election uncertainty,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing business survey committee.

Worries about a slowing U.S. economy helped send stocks on a scary summertime swoon early last month, but financial markets later rebounded on hopes that the Federal Reserve could pull off a perfect landing for the economy. After jacking its main interest rate to a two-decade high to slow the economy enough to stifle high inflation, the Fed looks set to ease interest rates later this month in hopes of avoiding a recession.

Other reports later this week that could show how much help the economy needs, including updates on the number of job openings U.S. employers were advertising at the end of July and how strong U.S. services businesses grew last month. The week’s highlight will likely arrive on Friday, when a report will show how many jobs U.S. employers created during August.

The jobs report has once again become the main event for the stock market each month, taking over from updates on inflation, according to analysts at Bank of America. Many traders are anticipating the Fed will deliver a full percentage point of cuts to interest rates this year, which is a “recession-sized” amount, Gonzalo Asis and other economists and strategists wrote in a BofA Global Research report.

Other reports later this week that could show how much help the economy needs, including updates on the number of job openings U.S. employers were advertising at the end of July and how strong U.S. services businesses grew last month. The week’s highlight will likely arrive on Friday, when a report will show how many jobs U.S. employers created during August.

The jobs report has once again become the main event for the stock market each month, taking over from updates on inflation, according to analysts at Bank of America. Many traders are anticipating the Fed will deliver a full percentage point of cuts to interest rates this year, which is a “recession-sized” amount, Gonzalo Asis and other economists and strategists wrote in a BofA Global Research report.

On Wall Street, U.S. Steel fell 3.3% in its first trading after Vice President Kamala Harris said Monday that she opposed the company’s planned sale to Japan’s Nippon Steel. The Democratic presidential nominee’s comments, which echo President Joe Biden’s position, came after Nippon Steel Corp. said last week it would spend an additional $1.3 billion to upgrade facilities in Pennsylvania and Indiana, on top of a previous $1.4 billion commitment.

Nippon Steel also reiterated that it expects the transaction to close in the second half of 2024, despite ongoing political and labor opposition.

Nvidia was the heaviest weight by far on the S&P 500 after falling 6%. Its stock has been struggling even after the chip company topped high expectations for its latest profit report. The subdued performance could bolster criticism that Nvidia’s and other Big Tech stocks simply soared too high amid Wall Street’s rush into artificial-intelligence technology.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.83% from 3.91% late Friday. That’s down from 4.70% in late April, a significant move for the bond market.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were lower across much of Europe and Asia.

Worries were also growing about the resilience of China’s economy, as recently disclosed data showed a mixed picture. Weak earnings reports from Chinese companies, including property developer and investor New World Development Co., added to the pessimism.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.83% from 3.91% late Friday. That’s down from 4.70% in late April, a significant move for the bond market.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were lower across much of Europe and Asia.

Worries were also growing about the resilience of China’s economy, as recently disclosed data showed a mixed picture. Weak earnings reports from Chinese companies, including property developer and investor New World Development Co., added to the pessimism.

As a result, many restaurants in Japan and elsewhere are redoing their seating, changing their menus and adding other special touches to appeal to solo diners.

“Even so-called family restaurants are increasing counter seats for solitary diners, and restaurants are offering courses with smaller servings so a person eating alone gets a variety of dishes,” said Masahiro Inagaki, a senior researcher at the institute.

OpenTable CEO Debby Soo thinks remote work is one reason for the increase, with diners seeking respites from their home offices. But she thinks there are deeper reasons, too.

“I think there’s a broader movement of self-love and self-care and really… enjoying your own company,” Soo said.

The pandemic also made social interactions less feasible and therefore less important while eating out, said Anna Mattila, a professor of lodging management at Penn State University who has studied solo dining. And smartphones help some restaurant patrons feel connected to others even when they’re by themselves, she said.

“The social norms have changed. People don’t look at solo diners anymore and think, ‘You must be a loner,’” Mattila said.

The growth comes as more people are living alone. In 2019, the Pew Research Center found that 38% of U.S. adults ages 25 to 54 were living without a partner, up from 29% in 1990. In Japan, single households now make up one-third of the total; that’s expected to climb to 40% by 2040, according to government data.

Increasing interest in solo travel – particularly among travelers ages 55 and over – is also leading to more meals alone.

On a recent solo trip to Lucerne, Switzerland, Carolyn Ray was stunned when the hostess led her to a beautiful lake-view table set for one, complete with a small vase of flowers. Ray, the CEO and editor of JourneyWoman, a website for solo women travelers over 50, said other restaurants have tried to seat her toward the back or pointedly asked if someone will be joining her.

Ray counsels women planning to dine alone to go somewhere else if they’re treated rudely or given a bad table.

“It’s almost like the world hasn’t caught up with this idea that we are on our own because we want to be on our own and we’re independent and empowered,” she said. “We can go into any restaurant we want and have a table for one and feel good about it.”

Shawn Singh, a Houston-based content creator and restaurant reviewer, said he eats alone about 70% of the time. If the idea of venturing out for a solitary meal is intimidating, he suggests going to lunch instead of dinner – when tables are usually more crowded with groups – or going early on a weekday.

“The best way to see a restaurant you’ve been wanting to see for a long time is definitely going solo,” Singh said. “If I go at 5 p.m. and alone, I haven’t been denied at one place ever.”

Restaurants aren’t always thrilled to seat a single diner at a table that could fit more. A Michelin-starred London restaurant, Alex Dilling at Hotel Café Royal, caused a stir last year when it started charging solo patrons the same price as two customers. Its eight-course dinner tasting menu, which includes caviar and Cornish squid, costs 215 pounds ($280) per person.

The restaurant, which has only 34 seats, didn’t respond to a request for comment. But its website doesn’t allow reservations for less than two people.

Other restaurants say it’s worth seating one person at a table made for two because solo diners tend to be loyal, repeat customers.

“While there may be a short-term loss there, I think we’re kind of playing the long game and establishing ourselves as a place that’s truly special,” said Drew Brady, chief operating officer at Overthrow Hospitality, which operates 11 vegan restaurant concepts in New York.

Brady has seen an increase in solo diners since the pandemic, and says they’re evenly split between men and women. At the company’s flagship restaurant, Avant Garden, they make up as much as 8% of patrons.

In response, the restaurant teamed up with Lightspeed, a restaurant tech and consulting company, to develop a solo dining program. Avant Garden now has a spacious table designed for solo diners, with a $65 four-course menu fashioned like a passport to enhance the sense of adventure. If solo diners order a cocktail, a bartender mixes it tableside.

Mattila, at Penn State, said restaurants might want to consider additional changes. Her research has found that solo diners prefer angular shapes – in lights, tables or plates, for example – to round ones, which are more associated with the connectedness of groups. They also prefer slow-tempo music.

Jill Weber, the founder of Sojourn Philly, a Philadelphia company that owns two restaurants and a wine bar, said she adds a communal table at special events like wine tastings so individuals have a place to gather. She also doesn’t offer specials designed for two.

Weber, who is also an archaeologist, loves dining alone when she’s traveling.

“There’s something about not having to agree on where to go and everything that goes with that. You have the freedom to stay as long as you want, order what you want and sit with those things,” she said. “It also feels brave sometimes.”

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