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The recent hurricanes Helene and Milton have caused significant destruction in the United States, leading to widespread job losses and economic disruptions. Their impact is expected to complicate upcoming employment data collection and reporting, influencing policy decisions.
These catastrophic events can severely damage the labor market, causing immediate job losses, disrupting business operations, and leading to economic downturns across various industries. Recovery from these setbacks requires significant resources and time, potentially altering the employment landscape for years. The immediate aftermath often shows a rise in temporary layoffs and unemployment claims, followed by a complex recovery process involving job creation in rebuilding efforts and long-term economic adjustments.
Before Hurricane Milton's arrival, Oxford Economics researchers estimated that the storm's trajectory encompassed areas representing approximately 2.8% of the U.S.' gross domestic product. Their analysis suggested that a Category 5 hurricane could potentially decrease the fourth quarter's annualized GDP growth rate by 0.14 percentage points, reducing it from the projected 2.3% to under 2.2%. However, Milton weakened to a Category 3 storm before it hit Florida.
The impact of Hurricane Helene is expected to cause a reduction of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs in October's nonfarm payroll figures, with Hurricane Milton likely to further exacerbate the employment situation. Recent data published by the U.S. Department of Labor revealed a significant surge in initial unemployment claims, with 258,000 new filings reported in the first week of October. This represents a substantial increase of 33,000 claims compared to the previous week, largely attributed to the impact of Hurricane Helene on employment in Southeastern states, particularly Florida and North Carolina.
Economic analysts anticipate ongoing labor market challenges in the coming months, with the potential for further complications as the effects of Hurricane Milton continue to unfold. The storm's impact is likely to compound existing issues, leading to job losses and market distortions. Areas directly affected by the hurricane may experience sharp increases in unemployment as businesses temporarily cease operations due to physical damage or infrastructure failures.
The devastation incurred by the hurricanes is likely to lead to a rise in job opportunities within industries focused on reconstruction and recovery efforts. As communities begin to rebuild, construction, disaster relief, and infrastructure repair industries are expected to see an uptick in demand for workers. This shift in the labor market could provide a much-needed boost to local economies, offering new prospects for those displaced by the storms and potentially offsetting some of the initial job losses.
The economic impact of hurricanes is substantially mitigated by subsequent reconstruction activities. According to data from Implan, an economic analysis firm, the aftermath of a single hurricane can indirectly create close to 248,000 jobs, produce over $17 billion in wages, and add more than $30 billion to the GDP. The economic ripple effect is significant, with every dollar invested in hurricane-related repairs generating an additional $1.72 across various sectors of the economy, including retail, housing, banking, and oil-refining industries.
However, this recovery phase might not immediately offset the initial job losses, leading to overall negative employment figures in the short term. Moreover, while certain sectors may experience a short-term upswing in activity, other industries crucial to the local economy face severe setbacks. Tourism, retail, and hospitality sectors typically bear the brunt of these natural disasters, leading to significant job losses. This is particularly evident in states like Florida, where the tourism industry plays a vital role in the economy. The disruption caused by hurricanes can result in a sharp decline in visitor numbers, directly affecting employment opportunities in these tourism-dependent sectors.
The Labor Department announced on Thursday the approval of an initial emergency grant of up to $10 million for North Carolina to aid in Hurricane Helene recovery efforts. This funding will support disaster-relief employment and training programs in 25 counties severely impacted by the storm.
As property owners grapple with skyrocketing insurance rates or complete lack of coverage, businesses face difficult decisions about rebuilding or scaling back operations. This uncertainty may cast a long shadow over future job growth, with some companies perhaps considering relocation and new enterprises hesitating to establish themselves in hurricane-prone regions. Moreover, the workforce could be in flux, as employees may contemplate moving away from vulnerable areas, potentially triggering a demographic shift.
The recent hurricanes are expected to skew forthcoming economic indicators, with a particular impact on the October jobs report. Individuals affected by the storms who are temporarily out of work or facing business disruptions may be classified as unemployed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consequently, the November jobs report could show unusually low employment figures, reflecting the job market disturbances caused by these natural disasters.
This situation may complicate efforts to accurately assess the true condition of the labor market. Survey response difficulties in storm-affected regions could potentially lead to an underestimation of actual employment levels. Furthermore, these weather-related disruptions are likely to influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, whose district encompasses Florida, Georgia, and portions of Tennessee, Louisiana, and Mississippi, said at a luncheon on Tuesday that he is vigilantly observing the economic consequences of the recent hurricanes.
The impact of these natural disasters introduces additional challenges for the central bank in crafting suitable monetary policies to address these unexpected economic disruptions. Bostic noted that the hurricanes' economic repercussions could extend beyond six months, necessitating the development of an appropriate policy approach by the Fed to address these prolonged effects.
No sooner had residents of the Bahia Vista Gulf condominium complex dug out from Hurricane Helene than they were faced with the same daunting cleanup from new damage inflicted by Hurricane Milton.
The beachfront units had been gutted, treated, and dried out after Hurricane Helene, and mounds of sand that had blown in from the beach had been removed. Then, less than two weeks later, Hurricane Milton barreled in and undid all the progress.
“They’ve got to start the whole process over, cleaning, sanitizing, bringing in drying equipment, getting them all dried and prepped for renovations,” lamented Bill O’Connell, a board member at the complex in Venice, about an hour’s drive south of Tampa. The second hurricane “brought all the sand back on our property.”
Some longtime Floridians have grown accustomed to the annual cycle of storms that can shatter and upend lives in a state known mostly for its balmy weather, sunshine, and beaches.
“It’s the price you pay to live in paradise,” O’Connell said. “If you want to live here with this view, beautiful sunsets, be able to go out on your boat, enjoy what Florida has to offer, you have to be willing to accept that these storms are going to come.”
The devastation of the back-to-back storms is still being tallied as a swath of the state comes to terms with damage from the unusual dual strike of storms in such close proximity. Many residents, some returning home after evacuating, spent much of Saturday searching for gas as a fuel shortage gripped the state.
President Joe Biden planned to visit the Gulf Coast on Sunday.
Hurricane Milton killed at least 10 people after it made landfall as a Category 3 storm, tearing across central Florida, flooding barrier islands, and spawning deadly tornadoes. Officials say the toll could have been worse if not for the widespread evacuations. Overall, more than a thousand people were rescued in the wake of the storm.
Disaster hits twice
In the fishing village of Cortez, a community of 4,100 southwest of Tampa, Catherine Praught said she and her husband, Mark, felt “pure panic” when Hurricane Milton menaced Cortez so soon after Helene, forcing them to pause their cleanup and evacuate. Fortunately, their home wasn’t damaged by the second storm.
“This is where we live,” Catherine Praught said of their low-lying home of 36 years that had to be emptied, gutted, and scrubbed after Helene. “We’re just hopeful we get the insurance company to help us.”
Residents of the community’s modest, single-story wood and stucco-fronted cottages were working Saturday to remove broken furniture and tree limbs, stacking the debris in the street much like they did after Hurricane Helene.
A similar scene could be found in Steinhatchee, west of Gainsville, where enormous piles of debris lined the streets.
Melissa Harden lives less than a block from a restaurant and neighborhood bar that was reduced to rubble. Her house is on 16-foot (4.9-meter) pilings, but 4 feet (1.2 meters) of water still flooded in. When Milton was forecast, she feared Steinhatachee would be hit by the third hurricane in 14 months.
“Personally, I thought, if it comes, we’re already evacuated and our home is pretty messed up,” she said as friends and relatives helped with the cleanup, removing bathroom fixtures and pulling out damaged boards. “Of course, we didn’t want it! No more storms!”
Moody’s Analytics on Saturday estimated economic costs from the storm will range from $50 billion to $85 billion, including upwards of $70 billion in property damage and an economic output loss of up to $15 billion.
Widespread fuel shortage
In St. Petersburg, scores of people lined up at a station that had no gas Saturday, hoping it would arrive soon. Among them was Daniel Thornton and his 9-year-old daughter Magnolia, who arrived at 7 a.m. and were still waiting four hours later.
“They told me they have gas coming but they don’t know when it’s going to be here,” he said. “I have no choice. I have to sit here all day with her until I get gas.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters Saturday morning that the state opened three fuel distribution sites and planned to open several more. Residents can get 10 gallons (37.8 liters) each, free of charge, he said.
“Obviously as power gets restored ... and the Port of Tampa is open, you’re going to see the fuel flowing. But in the meantime, we want to give people another option,” DeSantis said.
Officials were replenishing area gas stations with the state’s fuel stockpiles and provided generators to stations that remained without power.
Rising rivers are among the remaining safety threats
As the recovery continues, DeSantis has warned people to be cautious, citing ongoing safety threats including downed power lines and standing water. Some 1.1 million Floridians were still without power Saturday night, according to Poweroutage.us.
National Weather Service Meteorologist Paul Close said rivers will “keep rising” for the next several days and result in flooding, mostly around Tampa Bay and northward. Those areas were hit by the most rain, which comes on top of a wet summer that included several earlier hurricanes.
“You can’t do much but wait,” Close said of the rivers cresting. “At least there is no rain in the forecast, no substantial rain. So we have a break here from all our wet weather.”
Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Helene downed power lines and washed out roads all over North Carolina’s mountains, the constant din of a gas-powered generator is getting to be too much for Bobby Renfro.
It’s difficult to hear the nurses, neighbors, and volunteers flowing through the community resource hub he has set up in a former church for his neighbors in Tipton Hill, a crossroads in the Pisgah National Forest north of Asheville. Much worse is the cost: he spent $1,200 to buy it and thousands more on fuel that volunteers drive in from Tennessee.
Turning off their only power source isn’t an option. This generator runs a refrigerator holding insulin for neighbors with diabetes and powers the oxygen machines and nebulizers some of them need to breathe.
The retired railroad worker worries that outsiders don’t understand how desperate they are, marooned without power on hilltops and down in “hollers.”
“We have no resources for nothing,” Renfro said. “It’s going to be a long ordeal.”
More than 43,000 of the 1.5 million customers who lost power in western North Carolina still lacked electricity on Friday, according to Poweroutage.us. Without it, they can’t keep medicines cold power medical equipment or pump well water. They can’t recharge their phones or apply for federal disaster aid.
Crews from all over the country and even Canada are helping Duke Energy and local electric cooperatives with repairs, but it’s slow going in the dense mountain forests, where some roads and bridges are completely washed away.
“The crews aren’t doing what they typically do, which is a repair effort. They’re rebuilding from the ground up,” said Kristie Aldridge, vice president of communications at North Carolina Electric Cooperatives.
Residents who can get their hands on gas and diesel-powered generators are depending on them, but that is not easy. Fuel is expensive and can be a long drive away. Generator fumes pollute and can be deadly. Small home generators are designed to run for hours or days, not weeks and months.
Now, more help is arriving. Renfro received a new power source this week, one that will be cleaner, quieter, and free to operate. Volunteers with the nonprofit Footprint Project and a local solar installation company delivered a solar generator with six 245-watt solar panels, a 24-volt battery, and an AC power inverter. The panels now rest on a grassy hill outside the community building.
Renfro hopes his community can draw some comfort and security, “seeing and knowing that they have a little electricity.”
The Footprint Project is scaling up its response to this disaster with sustainable mobile infrastructure. It has deployed dozens of larger solar microgrids, solar generators, and machines that can pull water from the air to 33 sites so far, along with dozens of smaller portable batteries.
With donations from solar equipment and installation companies as well as equipment purchased through donated funds, the nonprofit is sourcing hundreds more small batteries and dozens of other larger systems and even industrial-scale solar generators known as “Dragon Wings.”
Will Heegaard and Jamie Swezey are the husband-and-wife team behind Project Footprint. Heegaard founded it in 2018 in New Orleans with a mission of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of emergency responses. Helene’s destruction is so catastrophic, however, that Swezey said this work is more about supplementing generators than replacing them.
“I’ve never seen anything like this,” Swezey said as she stared at a whiteboard with scribbled lists of requests, volunteers, and equipment. “It’s all hands on deck with whatever you can use to power whatever you need to power.”
Down near the interstate in Mars Hill, a warehouse owner let Swezey and Heegaard set up operations and sleep inside. They rise each morning triaging emails and texts from all over the region. Requests for equipment range from individuals needing to power a home oxygen machine to makeshift clinics and community hubs distributing supplies.
Local volunteers help. Hayden Wilson and Henry Kovacs, glassblowers from Asheville, arrived in a pickup truck and trailer to make deliveries this week. Two installers from the Asheville-based solar company Sundance Power Systems followed in a van.
It took them more than an hour on winding roads to reach Bakersville, where the community hub Julie Wiggins runs in her driveway supports about 30 nearby families. It took many of her neighbors days to reach her, cutting their way out through fallen trees. Some were so desperate, they stuck their insulin in the creek to keep it cold.
Panels and a battery from Footprint Project now power her small fridge, a water pump, and a Starlink communications system she set up. “This is a game changer,” Wiggins said.
The volunteers then drove to Renfro’s hub in Tipton Hill before their last stop at a Bakersville church that has been running two generators. Other places are much harder to reach. Heegaard and Swezey even tried to figure out how many portable batteries a mule could carry up a mountain and arranged for some to be lowered by helicopters.
They know the stakes are high after Heegaard volunteered in Puerto Rico, where Hurricane Maria’s death toll rose to 3,000 as some mountain communities went without power for 11 months. Duke Energy crews also restored infrastructure in Puerto Rico and are using tactics learned there, like using helicopters to drop in new electric poles, utility spokesman Bill Norton said.
The hardest customers to help could be people whose homes and businesses are too damaged to connect, and they are why the Footprint Project will stay in the area for as long as they are needed, Swezey said.
“We know there are people who will need help long after the power comes back,” she said.
VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANES
Floridians recovering from Hurricane Milton, many of whom were journeying home after fleeing hundreds of miles to escape the storm, spent much of Saturday searching for gas as a fuel shortage gripped the state.
In St. Petersburg, scores of people lined up at a station that had no gas, hoping it would arrive soon. Among them was Daniel Thornton and his 9-year-old daughter Magnolia, who arrived at the station at 7 a.m. and were still waiting four hours later.
“They told me they have gas coming but they don’t know when it’s going to be here,” he said. “I have no choice. I have to sit here all day with her until I get gas.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters Saturday morning that the state opened three fuel distribution sites and planned to open several more. Residents can get 10 gallons (37.85 liters) each, free of charge, he said.
“Obviously as power gets restored ... and the Port of Tampa is open, you’re going to see the fuel flowing. But in the meantime, we want to give people another option,” DeSantis said.
Officials were replenishing area gas stations with the state’s fuel stockpiles and provided generators to stations that remained without power.
Disaster hits twice
Those who reached home were assessing the damage and beginning the arduous cleaning process. Some, like Bill O’Connell, a board member at Bahia Vista Gulf in Venice, had thought they were done after the condo association hired companies to gut, treat, and dry the units following Hurricane Helene. Milton undid that work and caused additional damage, O’Connell said.
“It reflooded everything that was already flooded, brought all the sand back on the property that we removed,” O’Connell said. “And also did some catastrophic wind damage, ripped off many roofs, and blew out a lot of windows that caused more damage inside the units.”
The two hurricanes left a ruinous mess in the fishing village of Cortez, a community of 4,100 along the northern edge of Sarasota Bay. Residents of its modest, single-story wood and stucco-fronted cottages were working to remove broken furniture and tree limbs, stacking the debris in the street much like they did after Hurricane Helene.
“Everything is shot,” said Mark Praught, a retired street sweeper for Manatee County, who saw 4-foot (1.2-meter) storm surges during Helene. “We’ll replace the electrical and the plumbing and go from there.”
Praught and his wife, Catherine, have lived for 36 years in a low-lying home that now looks like an empty shell. All the furniture had to be discarded, the walls and the brick and tile floors had to be scrubbed clean of muck, and drywall had to be ripped out.
Catherine Praught said they felt “pure panic” when Hurricane Milton menaced Cortez so soon after Helene, forcing them to pause their cleanup and evacuate. Fortunately, their home wasn’t damaged by the second storm.
“This is where we live,” Catherine Praught said. “We’re just hopeful we get the insurance company to help us.”
In Bradenton Beach, Jen Hilliard scooped up wet sand mixed with rocks and tree roots and dumped the mixture into a wheelbarrow.
“This was all grass,” Hilliard said of the sandy mess beneath her feet. “They’re going to have to make 500 trips of this.”
Hilliard, who moved to Florida six months ago and lives further inland, said she was happy to pitch in and help clean up her friend’s home a block from the shore in Bradenton Beach
Furniture and household appliances sat outside alongside debris from interior drywall that was removed after Helene sent several feet of storm surge into the house. Inside, walls were gutted up to 4 feet (1.2 meters), exposing the beams underneath.
“You roll with the punches,” she said. “Community is the best part, though. Everybody helping each other.”
Milton killed at least 10 people after it made landfall as a Category 3 storm, tearing across central Florida, flooding barrier islands, and spawning deadly tornadoes. Officials say the toll could have been worse if not for the widespread evacuations.
Overall, more than a thousand people had been rescued in the wake of the storm as of Saturday, DeSantis said.
Property damage and economic costs in the billions
On Sunday, President Joe Biden will survey the devastation inflicted on Florida’s Gulf Coast by the hurricane. He said he hopes to connect with DeSantis during the visit.
The trip offers Biden another opportunity to press Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to call lawmakers back to Washington to approve more funding during their pre-election recess. It’s something Johnson says he won’t do.
Biden is making the case that Congress needs to act now to ensure the Small Business Administration and FEMA have the money they need to get through hurricane season, which stretches through November in the Atlantic.
DeSantis welcomed the federal government’s approval of a disaster declaration announced Saturday and said he had gotten strong support from Biden.
“He basically said, you know, you guys are doing a great job. We’re here for you,” he said when asked about his conversations with Biden. “We sent a big request and we got approved for what we wanted.”
Moody’s Analytics on Saturday estimated economic costs from the storm will range from $50 billion to $85 billion, including upwards of $70 billion in property damage and an economic output loss of up to $15 billion.
Safety threats remain, including rising rivers
As the recovery continues, DeSantis has warned people to be cautious, citing ongoing safety threats including downed power lines and standing water. Some 1.3 million Floridians were still without power by Saturday afternoon, according to poweroutage.us.
National Weather Service Meteorologist Paul Close said rivers will “keep rising” for the next four or five days resulting in river flooding, mostly around Tampa Bay and northward. Those areas were hit by the most rain, which comes on top of a wet summer that included several earlier hurricanes.
“You can’t do much but wait,” Close said of the rivers cresting. “At least there is no rain in the forecast, no substantial rain. So we have a break here from all our wet weather.”