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Mel Nichols, a 37-year-old bartender in Phoenix, Arizona, takes home anywhere from $30 to $50 an hour with tips included. But the uncertainty of how much she’s going to make daily is a constant source of stress.
“For every good day, there are three bad days,” said Nichols, who has been in the service industry since she was a teenager. “You have no security when it comes to knowing how much you’re going to make.”
That uncertainty exists largely because federal labor law allows businesses to pay tipped workers, like food servers, bartenders, and bellhops, less than the minimum wage as long as customer tips make up the difference. Voters in Arizona and Massachusetts will decide in November whether it’s good policy to continue to let employers pass some of their labor costs to consumers.
The ballot measures reflect an accelerating debate over the so-called subminimum wage, which advocates say is essential to the sustainability of the service industry and detractors say pushes the cost of labor off employers’ shoulders and leads to the exploitation of workers.
The amount tipped workers make varies by state. Fourteen states pay the federal minimum, or just above $2 an hour for tipped workers and $7 an hour for non-tipped workers.
Arizona employers can pay their tipped workers $3 less hourly than other workers. Under current rates, that means tipped workers’ base pay is $11.35 an hour.
Voters will decide whether to approve a measure backed by state Republicans and the Arizona Restaurant Association to change the minimum for tipped workers to 25% less than the regular minimum wage as long as their pay with tips is $2 above that minimum.
The hourly minimum wage in Arizona is currently $14.35 and increases yearly according to inflation.
Voters in Massachusetts are being asked to eliminate the tiered minimum wage system.
There, voters will decide on a measure to incrementally increase the state’s tipped worker wage — currently $6.75 per hour — until it meets the regular minimum wage by January 2029. The measure was put forward by One Fair Wage, a not-for-profit that works to end the subminimum wage.
If voters approve the measure, the Bay State would join seven states that currently have a single minimum wage. Michigan will soon join that group after an August state Supreme Court ruling initiated a phase-out of the subminimum wage.
“When you’re not making the money that you should be making to pay your bills, it becomes hard on you,” said James Ford, a longtime Detroit-based hospitality worker. ”(The ruling) makes me think we’re moving forward.”
Other states have wage measures on the ballot. In California, voters will choose whether to raise the hourly minimum wage from $16 to $18 by 2026 in what would be the highest statewide minimum wage in the country. Measures in Alaska and Missouri would gradually raise minimum wages to $15 an hour while also requiring paid sick leave.
In the last two years, Washington, D.C., and Chicago also have started to eliminate the subminimum wage.
Employers must ensure that workers get the full minimum if they don’t make that much with tips. But they don’t always comply with federal labor law. One in 10 restaurants and bars investigated nationally by the U.S. Labor Department between 2010 and 2019 violated a provision of the Fair Labor Standards Act, resulting in the establishments paying $113.9 million in back wages.
The issue disproportionately affects women, who make up about 47% of the U.S. workforce but nearly 70% of those who work in tipped professions, according to an AP analysis of U.S. Census data.
In Arizona, Republican state Sen. J.D. Mesnard, the sponsor of Proposition 138, said the measure is a win for both businesses and lower-wage workers.
“The employer is protected in the sense that they can preserve this lower base, knowing that there are going to be tips on top of it,” Mesnard said. “The tipped worker is guaranteed to make more than minimum wage, which is more than they’re guaranteed today.”
Nichols doesn’t support it.
“It would reduce my hourly, and anything that reduces my hourly is not something that I want to lean into,” she said. “I don’t believe that business owners need any more cuts in labor costs.”
Proposition 138 was initially put forward as a response to a ballot measure pushed by One Fair Wage that would create a single minimum wage of $18, but the group abandoned the effort after threats of litigation from the restaurant association over how it collected signatures.
Instead, One Fair Wage will focus on trying to pass a wage hike in the Legislature. Democratic State Rep. Mariana Sandoval said she hopes her party in November can flip the Legislature, where Republicans hold a one-seat majority in both chambers.
After working for tips for more than 20 years, server Lindsay Ruck, who works at a restaurant at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, said she’s faced her fair share of belligerent customers. But because their tips make up such a significant part of her pay — approximately $60 an hour — she’s hesitant to stand up to them.
To Ruck, higher base pay -- not less -- is called for.
“I think that there should be just a single minimum wage and then people should get tipped on top of that,” Ruck said.
The National Restaurant Association and its state affiliates warn of reduced hours, lower employment, and menu price hikes if employers can’t rely on tips to pay their workers. That’s why Dan Piacquadio, a co-owner of Harold’s Cave Creek Corral restaurant outside Phoenix, is hoping voters pass Proposition 138.
“This is just a way to protect our current system that’s been there for 20 years and protect restaurant owners, keep restaurants affordable, and most importantly, keep very good pay for all tipped workers,” Piacquadio said.
Between 2012 and 2019, the number of restaurants and people employed at those restaurants grew at a faster clip in the seven states that have a single minimum wage compared to states that pay the federal minimum tipped wage, according to labor economist Sylvia Allegretto.
“We are sitting here in a state that has a $16 minimum wage,” Allegretto said from Oakland, California, where she works at the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research. “No subminimum wage, and we’ve got a thriving restaurant industry.”
Elon Musk, the billionaire founder of Tesla and Space X and owner of X who’s gone all-in on Republican Donald Trump’s candidacy for the White House, has already committed at least $70 million to help the former president. Now he’s pledging to give away $1 million a day to voters for signing his political action committee’s petition backing the Constitution.
The giveaway is raising questions and alarm among some election experts who say it is a violation of the law to link a cash handout to signing a petition that also requires a person to be registered to vote.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, the state’s former attorney general, expressed concern about the plan on Sunday.
“I think there are real questions with how he is spending money in this race, how the dark money is flowing, not just into Pennsylvania, but apparently now into the pockets of Pennsylvanians. That is deeply concerning,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
A closer look at what’s going on:
What is Musk doing?
Musk promised on Saturday that he would give away $1 million a day, until the Nov. 5 election, for people signing his PAC’s petition supporting the First Amendment, which protects freedom of speech, and the Second Amendment, with its right “to keep and bear arms.” He awarded a check during an event Saturday in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to a man identified as John Dreher. A message left with a number listed for Dreher was not returned Sunday. Musk gave out another check Sunday.
What’s the broader context here?
Musk’s America PAC has launched a tour of Pennsylvania, a critical election battleground. He’s aiming to register voters in support of Trump, whom Musk has endorsed. The PAC is also pushing to persuade voters in other key states. It’s not the first offer of cash the organization has made. Musk has posted on X, the platform he purchased as Twitter before renaming it, that he would offer people $47 — and then $100 — for referring others to register and signing the petition.
Trump, who was campaigning Sunday in Pennsylvania, was asked about Musk’s giveaway, and said, “I haven’t followed that.” Trump said he “speaks to Elon a lot. He’s a friend of mine” and called him great for the country.
What’s the issue with that?
Some election law experts are raising red flags about the giveaway. Brendan Fischer, a campaign finance lawyer, said the latest iteration of Musk’s giveaway approaches a legal boundary. That’s because the PAC is requiring registration as a prerequisite to become eligible for the $1 million check. “There would be few doubts about the legality of every Pennsylvania-based petition signer were eligible, but conditioning the registration payments arguably violates the law,” Fischer said in an email.
Rick Hasen, a UCLA Law School political science professor, went further. He pointed to a law that prohibits paying people for registering to vote or for voting. “If all he was doing was paying people to sign the petition, that might be a waste of money. But there’s nothing illegal about it,” Hasen said in a telephone interview. “The problem is that the only people eligible to participate in this giveaway are the people who are registered to vote. And that makes it illegal.”
Michael Kang, an election law professor at Northwestern University’s Pritzker School of Law, said the context of the giveaway so close to Election Day makes it harder to make the case that the effort is anything but a incentivizing people to register to vote.
“It’s not quite the same as paying someone to vote, but you’re getting close enough that we worry about its legality,” Kang said.
A message seeking comment was left with the PAC on Sunday, as was a request for comment from the Justice Department.
Can the PAC and Trump’s campaign coordinate?
Typically coordination between campaigns and so-called super PACs had been forbidden. But a recent opinion by the Federal Election Commissioner, which regulates federal campaigns, permitted candidates and these groups to work together in certain cases, including getting out-the-vote efforts.
Voters remain largely divided over whether they prefer Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris to handle key economic issues, although Harris earns slightly better marks on elements such as taxes for the middle class, according to a new poll.
A majority of registered voters in the survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research describe the economy as poor. About 7 in 10 say the nation is going in the wrong direction.
But the findings reaffirm that Trump has lost what had been an advantage on the economy, which many voters say is the most important issue this election season above abortion, immigration, crime, and foreign affairs.
“Do I trust Trump on the economy? No. I trust that he’ll give tax cuts to his buddies like Elon Musk,” said poll respondent Janice Tosto, a 59-year-old Philadelphia woman and self-described independent.
An AP-NORC poll conducted in September found neither Harris nor Trump had a clear advantage in handling “the economy and jobs.” But this poll asked more specific questions about whether voters trusted Trump or Harris to do a better job handling the cost of housing, jobs, and unemployment, taxes on the middle class, the cost of groceries and gas, and tariffs.
The poll found that 46% of voters prefer Harris on middle-class taxes, compared to 35% for Trump. Harris also has a slight advantage on the cost of housing. Voters are about evenly divided on whether Trump or Harris is better on prices for everyday essentials like groceries and gas, and neither candidate has an edge on jobs and unemployment.
Voters, meanwhile, are slightly more likely to prefer Trump on the issue of tariffs, which were defined in the poll as taxes on imported goods.
Poll respondent Amber Moody, 36, from Halifax, Virginia, said she trusts Trump — and Republicans in general — much more on economic matters.
“It seems to me that in my lifetime, every time a Democrat holds office, the economy suffers,” she said. “Prices go up, taxes go up and the national debt goes up. While I don’t approve of everything Donald Trump says and does, I do believe he is the better choice.”
Voters see Harris more favorably than Trump
Voters’ impressions of Harris and Trump have remained steady over the last month.
About half of voters have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Harris, while 46% see her unfavorably. Meanwhile, about 4 in 10 voters have a positive view of Trump and about 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view. Trump’s favorability ratings have been remarkably consistent over the last few months, even after two assassination attempts and a felony conviction.
Compared to last month, views of the candidates are stable among Black and Hispanic voters, as well as among men and women. Black voters’ views of Harris are overwhelmingly positive — about three-quarters have a favorable view of the Democratic candidate — and their views of Trump are negative, with about 2 in 10 holding a favorable view. Hispanic voters also view Harris more favorably than Trump, although the gap is narrower: About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters have a favorable view of Harris and about 4 in 10 have a favorable view of Trump.
The poll also shows a gender gap in views of the candidates heading into the final days of the election.
About half of women voters have a favorable impression of Harris, while only around one-third see Trump favorably. Among men, about half have a favorable view of Harris, and a similar share have a positive opinion of Trump.
Voters are pessimistic about the economy and the country
Overall, voters remain pessimistic about the state of the economy and the general direction of the country.
About half of voters describe the nation’s economy as very or somewhat poor. Republicans and independents are more likely than Democrats to express that view. There are modest signs of improvement, however, compared to an AP-NORC poll from October 2023, when about 7 in 10 U.S. adults thought the U.S. economy was in bad shape. The number was even worse in October 2022, when close to 8 in 10 Americans described the economy as poor.
About two-thirds of voters also say the country is headed in the wrong direction, while roughly one-third say things are moving in the right direction. Pessimism on that question has been fairly consistent over the last three years, although closer to 8 in 10 Americans thought the U.S. was heading in the wrong direction a year ago. U.S. adults were similarly gloomy just before the last presidential election, according to an AP-NORC poll from October 2020 when roughly 7 in 10 Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Jeffrey Trimble, a 62-year-old Democrat from Hermitage, Pennsylvania, said he’s increasingly optimistic about the direction of the nation after “four years of hell” during Trump’s first term.
“We have some really good people at the top of our government who have a vision, they’re kind, they’re trying to get us back on track,” Trimble said.
Overall, the new poll highlights signs of trouble for both candidates as they work to assemble winning coalitions.
Younger voters are considerably more pessimistic about the health of the economy than older voters, and that’s not good news for Harris, whose party has long relied on strong support from voters of color and young people.
Voters under the age of 45 are also slightly less likely than voters over 45 to trust Harris to handle the cost of housing or the cost of groceries and gas, although that doesn’t mean they prefer Trump. Sizable shares of younger voters — about one-quarter on both issues — trust neither candidate or both equally.
Trump’s strongest issue remains immigration
On other issues, meanwhile, Trump’s most consistent advantage continues to be immigration.
Forty-five percent of voters say he’s the better candidate to handle immigration issues, compared to about 4 in 10 who prefer Harris. About half of white voters trust Trump more on the issue of immigration, while about one-third say this about Harris. Hispanic voters are split on which candidate they prefer to handle immigration.
Harris’ strongest issues are abortion policy, with about half of voters saying she’d be better on that issue compared to about 3 in 10 for Trump; climate change, where about half prefer her leadership and about 2 in 10 prefer Trump’s; and election integrity, where about half prefer Harris and about 3 in 10 prefer Trump.
The candidates are about even on the issue of crime. Foreign policy is also a key issue this fall, although neither candidate has a clear advantage on the situation in the Middle East. There are some signs of weakness on the issue for Harris within her own party, however. Only about two-thirds of Democratic voters say Harris would be the better candidate to handle the situation in the Middle East. Among Republicans, about 8 in 10 say Trump would be better.
Diana Campbell Williams, a 72-year-old Democrat who lives in Auburn, Michigan, cites foreign affairs as her top issue.
She says she’s concerned about Russia, Iran, and North Korea. She doesn’t like Trump’s questioning of NATO and his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I trust Harris more,” Williams said. “I feel she knows more about what’s going on, and I prefer the type of people she’d be surrounded by after the election.”