Unemployment is below pre-pandemic levels in most of the swing states that will likely decide next month’s presidential election, according to a Bloomberg analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
In six of the seven battleground states, the jobless rate in the eight months through August — the last time regional numbers were announced — was lower than the average under President Donald Trump between 2017 and February 2020, when Covid hit. In Arizona and Pennsylvania, it’s improved by more than 1 percentage point.
Swing State Shift
Unemployment rates remain below pre-pandemic except in Nevada
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Trump's period, minus the Covid period, runs from 2017 through February 2020. The comparison period is the first 8 months of 2024
The data offers encouragement for the Democratic campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s made the Biden administration’s record of job creation a key part of her pitch to voters. Nationally, unemployment for September came in at a lower-than-expected 4.1%, according to a BLS report last week that didn’t include state-level figures. Trump’s economic campaign has focused on the surge in consumer prices and immigration on Biden’s watch.
Unemployment in Wisconsin was tied for the 10th lowest in the US at just 2.9% in August. The rates in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania were below the US average for the month, while in Michigan it ticked up slightly and exceeded the national rate.
Nevada stands out for having the highest unemployment rate among the seven battleground states. It was above the national average before the pandemic and remains so now, with an average unemployment rate of 5.2% this year, up about 0.7 percentage points from the pre-Covid average.
The state’s job market is dominated by Las Vegas, which has roughly three-quarters of its labor force — and the second-highest unemployment rate among the 51 largest US metro areas, surpassed only by Los Angeles.
Nevada’s economy has performed poorly on other measures recently, with a second-quarter growth rate of 1.8% compared with the 3% national figure, and personal income gains that are slower than the other swing states. The latest RealClearPolitics polling average in Nevada shows Harris has a 48.6% to 47.5% advantage that essentially amounts to a statistical tie.
Last month’s Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll across all the swing states found Harris has a lead of some 3 percentage points among likely voters. On the question of who’s more trusted over unemployment, the candidates were neck-and-neck with 46% of respondents saying they trusted Harris more than 45% for Trump.