Economic Impact of Mass Deportation Policies
- Trump's Proposal: Former President Donald Trump has pledged to conduct a "mass deportation" of immigrants if re-elected, potentially targeting both undocumented and some legal residents.
- Cost of Deportation:
- A one-time operation to deport 13.3 million people could cost at least $315 billion.
- A decade-long operation deporting 1 million annually could cost $88 billion per year.
- Economic Impact:
- Significant loss of tax revenue and contributions to Social Security and Medicare.
- Major workforce reductions in key industries:
- Hospitality: 1 in 14 workers
- Agriculture and construction: 1 in 8 workers
- Potential milk price spike and $32 billion economic cost to the dairy industry.
- Reduction in GDP: 4.2% to 6.8% annually (American Immigration Council estimate).
- Labor Market Effects:
- Jobs often filled by undocumented workers (e.g., housekeeping, construction, agriculture) may remain unfilled.
- Potential for increased automation in agriculture.
- Cascading effects on higher-skilled positions held by U.S.-born workers.
- Childcare Industry Impact:
- Reduction in childcare workers could lead to higher childcare costs.
- Potential decrease in labor market participation of college-educated U.S.-born mothers.
- Long-term Economic Consequences:
- Undocumented workers contributed $5 trillion to U.S. private-sector GDP over 10 years.
- Immigration is expected to be the primary source of population growth, crucial for long-term economic growth.
- Personal and State-Level Impacts:
- Emotional stress and income loss for mixed-status families.
- Significant effects on states with large undocumented populations (e.g., California, Texas, Florida).
- Public Opinion:
- Mixed views: 54% support mass deportation, but 70% support admitting immigrants to address labor shortages.
- The sharp partisan divide on the issue.