It might be days before the next president is declared, experts suggest
In November 2020, when Americans last went to the polls to elect a president, it took four days after voting closed for Joe Biden to be declared the winner.
This was largely due to razor-thin margins in the crucial battleground states, which resulted in some recounts, as well as large numbers of mail-in ballots that had to be counted after election day. There was the added challenge of this entire process being conducted amid a global pandemic.
Since then, some states have changed their election laws to speed up the election count. But while it may not take as long this time round, one thing we can be sure of is that a winner will not be known on election night itself.
When do polls open and close?
There is no set national time for voting to begin on the morning of November 5. Most states will begin voting at 7 a.m. in their local time, with others starting as early as 5 a.m. or as late as 10 a.m. Voting will commence at a variety of times in some states, such as New Hampshire, Tennessee, and Washington where this is decided by different counties or municipalities.
Polls close at a range of times across the country, too. Voting will end as early as 6 p.m. Eastern time (11 p.m. GMT) in Indiana and Kentucky, while polls in Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, do not close until midnight Eastern time (5am GMT).
An early indicator of which candidate is performing better will come between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern time (midnight and 1 a.m. GMT), when polls close in the key battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina. Both states are competitive for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and if the former is declared the victor in either, then the contest will pivot in her favor.
The next key moment could occur between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. Eastern time (1 a.m. and 2 a.m. GMT), when voting ends across the so-called blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, it is unlikely that a winner will be declared in any of these states straightaway. By 10 p.m. Eastern time (3 a.m. GMT), polls will have closed in two other critical swing states, Arizona and Nevada.
When will votes be counted?
There are several factors that could hinder results being announced in the hours immediately after voting ends. In Arizona, for example, state laws allow voters to drop their completed ballot papers off at the polling station on election day or the day prior – something that not all states do. However, these “late early” ballots cannot be processed until after voting ends.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most prized swing state that both the Democratic and Republican campaigns are vying for. The state has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground state, so the victor will probably win the electoral college (the group of officials that elects the president based on the vote in each state) and thus also the presidency.
But Pennsylvania does not allow election workers to process mail ballots until 7am local time on election day, which could mean the result takes longer than 24 hours after polls close to be made known.
That said, Alauna Safarpour, an assistant professor at Pennsylvania’s Gettysburg College, does not think the wait will be as long as it was four years ago. Writing for The Conversation on October 29, she said that it was “highly likely” that fewer Pennsylvanians would choose to vote by mail this time around.
“A smaller proportion of voters opted to vote by mail in the 2022 midterm election than in the 2020 general election, and that trend is likely to continue in 2024,” she says.
Two more crucial states, Michigan and Nevada, have also made changes to the election count since 2020. These states now permit ballot papers to be processed in advance of polling day. On the other hand, the ability of North Carolina to process votes ahead of the election has been made more difficult due to the damage recently caused by Hurricane Helene. This may lead to further delays.
In Wisconsin, vote counting in two of the state’s biggest counties – Milwaukee and Dane – can also be particularly slow. Milwaukee and Dane counties are both significant urban centers with a combined population of around 1.5 million people. The margin in these counties will be significant to the result in Wisconsin and the presidential race overall.
What might delay the results?
There are concerns that certain domestic players could seek to frustrate and delay election results in the critical swing states. In January 2020, for example, a large number of Republicans in Congress objected to results in Pennsylvania and Arizona – states that were both won by Biden.
And in seven swing states, people falsely claiming to be members of the Electoral College attempted to declare Trump as the winner of their state. Their votes were sent to Congress to be counted alongside those of the true electors, with some Congress members arguing that the new slate of electoral votes cast doubts over the official result in certain states. In 2023, a Trump campaign lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, pleaded guilty in Georgia to his role in subverting the election.
Norman Eisen, Samara Angel, and Clare Boone, who are all fellows at the Brookings Institution thinktank, have provided a detailed analysis of how this scenario could be repeated in 2024. They point to nefarious strategies that could be utilized to confuse results by refusing to certify elections at the “county level.”
For example, three election deniers – Rick Jeffares, Janice Johnston, and Janelle King – hold the balance of power in Georgia’s state election board. They have jointly devised new rules that allow vote certification to be paused while investigations are launched into alleged “irregularities”.
Eisen, Angel, and Boone assert that while “these attempts will likely meet the same fate as prior efforts, they could still stoke uncertainty and distrust.” So, given the existence of these threats and the fact that polls show a dead heat, we will probably not know the election’s winner for at least a few days.
There is a kind of collective national anxiety as any presidential election approaches. That has never been truer than with the 2024 race. It’s contentious at the best of times and the campaigning feels like it’s been going on forever. It’s also possible that we won’t know who our next president will be when the polls close on Election Day. Worst case, it could take days, even weeks to announce a winner.
The election outcome is out of everyone’s control once they place their votes, and that escalates anxiety. With such a close race, half the country will be disappointed by the outcome. However, you’ll be glad to know there are ways to manage the stress and anxiety associated with the U.S. political process, starting with deciding that you are going to manage stress well. Just making that decision changes your perception of stress and your ability to manage it. Here are tools for coping with your share of the collective election anxiety.
Don’t focus on the outcome
Avoid catastrophizing about what will happen if your candidate doesn’t win. Instead, invest your energy in something that takes your mind off the events and unknowable possibilities, such as engaging in your favorite hobby or reading a good book.
Think about actions you can take to continue championing the causes important to you, even if your candidate loses.
Remember that emotions wax and wane
Humans are bad at affective forecasting – judging how intense negative emotions will become and how long the negativity will feel overwhelming. We tend to imagine that the effect is going to be bigger on our personal lives than it is.
Track your happiness, a global research project founded by Matt Killingsworth, a senior fellow at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, involved 200,000 people using their smartphones to assess their mental habits and contentment with daily life. Killingsworth found that what makes you happy will still be in play even when you’re stressed about something else.
To quote Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, “Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you’re thinking about it.”
Keep your mind in the moment
Research shows that most people’s minds are wandering about 50% of the time. Channel your energy into what you’re doing at the moment. Killingworth suggests a simple exercise. When your attention is wandering, feel your feet on the floor and notice what’s right in front of you. The external world tends to be better than what we’re ruminating on in our minds.
Interact with people in real life
Social media can become a toxic reservoir of ill-formed opinions, misinformation, and disinformation. Instead, say hello to someone in line when you’re getting coffee or food. Misery loves company, and, in this case, social interaction reduces misery.
One in four people say they have ended a friendship over politics. When you are engaged in controversial topics, give up trying to change the other person’s mind. Focus on curiosity rather than criticism. Avoid inflammatory language and stereotyping.
Find balance
Stick with habits that nurture your mental health. Maintain sensible sleep and exercise schedules. Limit your exposure to news. Practice relaxing your face and mind.
In conclusion: remember that emotions are malleable, especially when you practice being in the present.
The Heritage Foundation's "2025 Presidential Transition Project" has emerged as a blueprint for potential dramatic changes in American society under a potential future Republican administration. While initially receiving limited attention, the 922-page document's authoritarian vision has gained notoriety in recent months—particularly among those who could face direct impacts from its proposals.
Among the document's many controversial positions is an explicit call to criminalize pornography. Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts writes in the foreword that "pornography should be outlawed" and its producers imprisoned. He advocates for classifying educators and librarians who distribute it as sex offenders while proposing to shut down technology companies that enable its distribution.
Adult performers and sex workers' rights activists are mobilizing to raise awareness about these threats. "In my experience, the best way to fight back against the stigmatization and devaluation of our labor is to speak out consistently," says adult performer and activist Siri Dahl. She warns that the proposal's true aim appears to be crippling legitimate adult entertainment companies through excessive regulation, potentially driving traffic to unregulated overseas sites—which could then be used to argue that all pornography is exploitative.
The document's rhetoric links pornography to conservative hot-button issues like gender identity and child protection, though without supporting evidence. Kim Fuentes, director of research at Sex Workers Outreach Project Los Angeles (SWOP LA), notes that Project 2025 frames gender equality, reproductive rights, and federal welfare programs as threats to American well-being. "It exacerbates existing inequalities that are literally killing the most marginalized groups within the sex work industry," she explains.
Industry data reveals widespread concern about conservative attacks, particularly among vulnerable groups. According to Mashable, 93% of trans performers, 94% of creators of color, and 100% of gay and lesbian creators express worry about these potential policies.
In response, performers and activists have launched multiple initiatives. The $500,000 "Hands Off My Porn" campaign featured nearly 20 performers in ads targeting swing states, warning voters about Project 2025's implications. Additionally, Dahl co-hosted the "Corn Telethon," a 12-hour variety show that raised over $8,000 for sex workers' mutual aid organizations.
Looking ahead, activists are planning future events while acknowledging political complexities. While critical of Vice President Harris's past support for legislation like SESTA/FOSTA that they say endangered sex workers, many view supporting the Harris/Walz ticket as necessary damage control.
"Politicians are not pop stars, and I don't need to be a fan of a particular politician to cast my vote for their administration," Dahl reflects. She hopes for a Harris victory to neutralize Project 2025's immediate threat, after which "all of us sex worker activists can get back to work demanding that the government, including the Democratic Party, stop making laws for us and about us without ever consulting us about it."
Fuentes emphasizes the importance of continued organizing regardless of election outcomes. "Advocacy for harm reduction, decriminalization, and the insistence of sex work's right to existence is crucial to mitigate these risks and promote a safer, more equitable environment for all involved in the industry."