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Egg prices are rising once more as a lingering outbreak of bird flu coincides with the high demand of the holiday baking season.
But prices are still far from the recent peak they reached almost two years ago. And the American Egg Board, a trade group, says egg shortages at grocery stores have been isolated and temporary so far.
“Those are being rapidly corrected, sometimes within a day,” said Emily Metz, the Egg Board’s president and chief executive officer.
The average price for a dozen eggs in U.S. cities was $3.37 in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was down slightly from September, and down significantly from January 2023, when the average price soared to $4.82. But it was up 63% from October 2023, when a dozen eggs cost an average of $2.07.
Metz said the egg industry sees its highest demand in November and December.
“You can’t have your holiday baking, your pumpkin pie, your stuffing, without eggs,” she said.
Avian influenza is the main reason for the higher prices. The current bird flu outbreak that began in February 2022 has led to the slaughter of more than 111 million birds, mostly egg-laying chickens. Anytime the virus is found, every bird on a farm is killed to limit the spread of the disease.
More than 6 million birds have been slaughtered just this month because of bird flu. They were a relatively small part of the total U.S. egg-laying flock of 377 million chickens. Still, the flock is down about 3% over the past year, contributing to a 4% drop in egg production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The latest wave of bird flu is scrambling supplies of cage-free eggs because California has been among the hardest-hit states. California, Nevada, Washington, and Oregon all require eggs sold in their states to be cage-free.
“We’re having to move eggs from other areas of the country that are producing cage-free to cover that low supply in those states because those states only allow for cage-free eggs to be sold,” Metz said.
Cage-free requirements are set to go into effect in Arizona, Colorado, and Michigan next year and in Rhode Island and Utah in 2030.
Demand for such specialty eggs may also be contributing to avian flu, which is spread through the droppings of wild birds as they migrate past farms. Allowing chickens to roam more freely puts them at greater risk, said Chad Hart, a professor and agricultural economist at Iowa State University.
“It’s really hard to control that interaction between domesticated birds and wild birds,” Hart said. “Some of those vectors have been opened up because we’re asking the egg industry to produce in ways that we didn’t ask them to before.”
Metz said climate change and extreme weather are also blowing some wild birds off course.
“We have birds that have been displaced by hurricanes, by wildfires, and those birds are now circulating in areas that they otherwise might not circulate or at times of the year that they otherwise may not be circulating,” she said. “And those are all new variables that our farmers are having to deal with.”
Hart said the egg industry is trying to rebuild the flock, but that also can limit supplies, since farmers have to hold back some eggs to hatch into new chickens.
Still, there is some good news on U.S. poultry farms. The price of chicken feed — which represents 70% of a farmer’s costs — has fallen significantly after doubling between 2020 and 2022, Hart said.
Ready or not, the holidays are here. It’s a time when many Americans accustomed to preparing simple meals find themselves responsible for safely serving multi-dish feasts.
It’s no easy task. Outbreaks of some types of food poisoning tend to rise in November and December, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Tainted turkey, undercooked stuffing, and germ-laced gravy from holiday buffets have all led to past illnesses — and even deaths — CDC investigators have found.
It can be tricky for occasional cooks to prepare big meals in a way that avoids the common hazards that can make people sick, said Donald Schaffner, a food science expert at Rutgers University.
“Cooking takes longer with big masses of food. Cooling takes longer with big masses of food,” said Schaffner, who co-hosts the food-safety podcast “Risky or Not?”
Together with podcast co-host Benjamin Chapman, a food scientist at North Carolina State University, Schaffner outlined common ways to keep holiday meals both festive and safe.
Prepare the turkey
Nearly 90% of U.S. hosts plan to serve turkey on Thanksgiving this year, according to the turkey producer Butterball.
But raw turkey can harbor illness-causing bacteria such as salmonella, campylobacter, and other germs. It must be handled safely to prevent those bugs from contaminating refrigerator surfaces, sinks, and kitchen counters.
A frozen bird must be thawed first. There are several accepted methods, including in the refrigerator, in the microwave, or in cold running water, Schaffner said.
“All of these methods pose risks,” he cautioned.
A frozen turkey needs about 24 hours for every 4 to 5 pounds of weight to thaw in a refrigerator, according to the Agriculture Department. If you use a microwave or the cold water method, the bird must be cooked immediately. For details about safe turkey handling, check out the thawing and cooking calculators created by the USDA.
And don’t wash the turkey. It’s a bad idea to rinse it in the sink, even though many cooks still insist on the practice, often out of habit, said Chapman.
“Anything that hits that surface and generates spray is going to basically spread contamination around your kitchen,” he said.
Instead, pat the turkey dry with paper towels and toss them, or use a kitchen towel and disinfect it in the laundry.
What about roasting?
Turkey needs to reach a cooked temperature of 165 degrees Fahrenheit before serving. The best way to tell if it’s cooked is to use a tip-sensitive digital thermometer inserted in the innermost section of the thigh, not touching the bone.
Don’t rely on the plastic pop-up thermometers stuck in some commercial turkeys. Chapman’s past research shows that those buttons can activate well before the bird is actually done.
At the same time, don’t determine doneness by relying on signs such as golden-brown skin, whether the meat is no longer pink, or whether the juices run clear.
“None of those are great indicators of temperature,” Chapman said.
Side dishes and leftovers
How you handle the rest of the meal — mashed potatoes, gravy, green beans, or yams — is just as important as the main dish. It’s crucial to avoid the so-called danger zone of temperatures between 40 degrees and 140 degrees Fahrenheit, where bacteria can easily grow.
The key is to keep hot foods piping hot and cold foods cold — and to refrigerate everything promptly, Schaffner said.
“The recommendation is that you get those leftovers into the refrigerator within two hours of when they came off of the stove,” he said.
Make sure to refrigerate dense foods like sliced turkey, cooked sweet potatoes, or gravy in shallow containers to help them cool down fast. Schaffner’s recent research showed that foods cooled in containers at a depth of no more than 2 inches posed little risk of growing dangerous germs.
Keep it clean
One key way to avoid food poisoning is through scrupulous cleaning in the kitchen.
Wash your hands before preparing food and after touching raw poultry. Use separate cutting boards, knives, and other utensils when handling raw meat and fresh foods such as vegetables and salads.
Pay close attention to any surface that may be contaminated. It’s important to clean first with soap and water and then sanitize with a disinfectant — a two-step process.