Tech Industry Braces for Potential Immigration Changes Under Trump
Tech industry leaders are expressing growing concern about the potential impact of Donald Trump's immigration policies on their ability to recruit and retain crucial technical talent.
"If the backlash against immigrants impacts the flow of really talented people into the country, that's probably not good for us overall," warns Michael Greeley, general partner at healthcare technology investor Flare Capital Partners.
The president-elect's previous stance on immigration has raised questions about both unauthorized immigrants and the legal immigration system that supplies skilled workers to the tech sector. Trump's campaign has promised to reinstate border policies, including completing the southern border wall and reviving travel restrictions that previously affected predominantly Muslim countries—a move that stranded numerous tech workers outside the US in 2017.
## Impact on High-Skilled Workers
The H-1B visa program, the nation's largest temporary work visa program, currently supports over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers. Last year, computer-related roles accounted for 65% of approved visas, according to US Citizenship and Immigration Services data.
Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney Hiba Mona Anver notes that while outright anxiety hasn't set in, there is "a sense of the need to prepare" among her tech clients. Jenny Fielding, co-founder of global investment firm Everywhere Ventures, points out Trump's past record: "Trump doesn't have a great track record of supporting the visas that are critical to startup founders and early employees who want to build companies in the US."
## Historical Context and Current Concerns
During his first term, Trump's "Buy American, Hire American" policy led to increased visa denial rates and stricter scrutiny of workers' eligibility. Immigration attorney Sophie Alcorn highlights the stark contrast: "From 2016 to 2020, the average denial rate for H-1B visas was over 17%, compared to just 3.2% under President Biden."
The tech sector, already facing worker shortages, particularly in AI-related roles, could see these challenges intensify under stricter immigration policies. As Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer at CBIZ, notes, "You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor. That makes no sense."
## Potential Silver Linings
However, some industry leaders see the potential for a different approach. Box CEO Aaron Levie suggests that Trump ally Elon Musk could influence immigration policy positively. "Our highly skilled immigration system is frozen in time and not responsive to the market," Levie posted on X. "We have far more demand for the top talent to work for and start companies here than we let in."
Musk, who might be considered for an administration role, has expressed agreement with this sentiment. Trump himself has occasionally voiced support for attracting top talent, suggesting in a June podcast appearance that non-US students graduating from US colleges should receive green cards.
Immigration attorney Alcorn points to potentially moderating influences in Trump's circle, including Vice President-elect JD Vance's venture capital background and Musk's own experience as an immigrant who previously held an H-1B visa.
## Real-World Impact
The uncertainty affects real people in the tech industry. Shin Yi Chong, an H-1B visa holder recently laid off from her product manager position, faces potential deportation if she cannot secure new employment within weeks. Drawing from past experience, she expresses concern: "Just seeing historical data from what happened when Trump was in office the last time, I don't foresee it changing in a positive direction."
As the tech industry awaits more clarity on future immigration policies, the balance between maintaining American jobs and attracting global talent remains a critical challenge for the sector's continued growth and innovation.