The industries that could be hardest hit by Trump's immigration crackdown

 

President-elect Donald Trump's commitment to deport millions of undocumented immigrants raises significant concerns about labor shortages in key U.S. industries and potential economic repercussions. While undocumented workers constitute a relatively small segment of the overall workforce, their impact is particularly pronounced in sectors such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality.

Economic Impact of Deportation Plans

Estimates suggest that mass deportations could lead to a reduction of up to 6.8% in the national gross domestic product (GDP), translating to a potential loss of between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion. This economic contraction would be comparable to the GDP decline experienced during the Great Recession, which saw a drop of 4.3%

Role of Undocumented Workers

As of 2022, undocumented workers represented a significant portion of labor in various industries:

• Construction: Approximately 39% of plasterers and stucco masons, 36% of drywall installers, and 36% of roofers are undocumented
• Agriculture: About 28% of graders and sorters for agricultural products and 25% of miscellaneous agricultural workers fall into this category
• Hospitality and Services: These sectors would also face sever labor shortages without immigrant labor, as highlighted by the Center for Migration Studies.

Despite constituting only about 4.4% to 5.4% of the total U.S. workforce, undocumented immigrants play critical roles in jobs that many American citizens are unwilling to take. A Pew Research report indicated that 75% of U.S. voters believe undocumented immigrants primarily fill jobs that citizens do not want

Humanitarian Consequences

The proposed mass deportations would have dire humanitarian implications, potentially separating about 4 million mixed-status families, and affecting approximately 8.5 million U.S. citizens who have undocumented family members. The financial impact on these households could be severe, with average income reductions estimated at nearly 63%, or around $51,000 per year.

Current Workforce Statistics

From 2003 to 2022, unauthorized immigrants consistently comprised a narrow range of the U.S. workforce, hovering between 4.4% and 5.4%. This demographic is predominantly workforce-aged, which explains its higher representation compared to its share of the total population

Future Labor Needs

The construction industry alone is projected to require over 500,000 new workers by 2024 to meet development goals, underscoring the reliance on immigrant labor to fill these gaps. Additionally, sectors like healthcare anticipate shortages due to an aging population and declining birth rates among native-born workers.

Conclusion

Trump's plans for mass deportation pose not only a risk to economic stability but also threaten the essential contributions that undocumented immigrants make across various sectors. The potential for widespread labor shortages could hinder economic growth and exacerbate existing challenges within industries reliant on immigrant labor.