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Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of the insurgency that toppled Syria’s Assad?

    








Syrian President Bashar Assad fled the country on Sunday, bringing to a dramatic close his nearly 14-year struggle to hold onto control as his country fragmented in a brutal civil war that became a proxy battlefield for regional and international powers.

The exit of the 59-year-old Assad stood in stark contrast to his first months as Syria’s unlikely president in 2000 when many hoped he would be a young reformer after three decades of his father’s iron grip. At age 34, the Western-educated ophthalmologist appeared as a geeky tech-savvy fan of computers with a gentle demeanor.

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But when faced with protests of his rule that erupted in March 2011, Assad turned to the brutal tactics of his father to crush dissent. As the uprising hemorrhaged into an outright civil war, he unleashed his military to blast opposition-held cities, with support from allies Iran and Russia.

International rights groups and prosecutors alleged widespread use of torture and extrajudicial killings in Syria’s government-run detention centers. The war has killed nearly half a million people and displaced half of the country’s prewar population of 23 million.

The conflict appeared to be frozen in recent years, with Assad’s government regaining control of most of Syria’s territory while the northwest remained under the control of opposition groups and the northeast under Kurdish control.

Although Damascus remained under crippling Western sanctions, neighboring countries had begun to resign themselves to Assad’s continued hold on power. The Arab League reinstated Syria’s membership last year, and Saudi Arabia in May announced the appointment of its first ambassador since severing ties with Damascus 12 years ago.

However, the geopolitical tide turned quickly when opposition groups in northwest Syria in late November launched a surprise offensive. Government forces quickly collapsed while Assad’s allies, preoccupied by other conflicts — Russia’s war in Ukraine and the yearlong wars between Israel and the Iran-backed militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas — appeared reluctant to forcefully intervene.

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Syrian President Bashar Assad, left, gestures while speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, Jan. 7, 2020. (Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
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In this photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, speaks with Syrian President Bashar Assad in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, May 30, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP, File)

An end to decades of family rule

Assad came to power in 2000 by a twist of fate. His father had been cultivating Bashar’s oldest brother, Basil, as his successor, but in 1994, Basil was killed in a car crash in Damascus. Bashar was brought home from his ophthalmology practice in London, put through military training, and elevated to the rank of colonel to establish his credentials so he could one day rule.

When Hafez Assad died in 2000, parliament quickly lowered the presidential age requirement from 40 to 34. Bashar’s elevation was sealed by a nationwide referendum, in which he was the only candidate.

Hafez, a lifelong military man, ruled the country for nearly 30 years during which he set up a Soviet-style centralized economy and kept such a stifling hand over dissent that Syrians feared even to joke about politics to their friends.

He pursued a secular ideology that sought to bury sectarian differences under Arab nationalism and the image of heroic resistance to Israel. He formed an alliance with the Shiite clerical leadership in Iran, sealed Syrian domination over Lebanon and set up a network of Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups.

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Bashar initially seemed completely unlike his strongman father.

Tall and lanky with a slight lisp, he had a quiet, gentle demeanor. His only official position before becoming president was head of the Syrian Computer Society. His wife, Asma al-Akhras, whom he married several months after taking office, was attractive, stylish, and British-born.

The young couple, who eventually had three children, seemed to shun the trappings of power. They lived in an apartment in the upscale Abu Rummaneh district of Damascus, as opposed to a palatial mansion like other Arab leaders.

Initially, upon coming to office, Assad freed political prisoners and allowed more open discourse. In the “Damascus Spring,” salons for intellectuals emerged where Syrians could discuss art, culture,e and politics to a degree impossible under his father.

But after 1,000 intellectuals signed a public petition calling for multiparty democracy and greater freedoms in 2001, and others tried to form a political party, the salons were snuffed out by the feared secret police, who jailed dozens of activists.

Tested by the Arab Spring, Assad relied on old alliances to stay in power

Instead of a political opening, Assad turned to economic reforms. He slowly lifted economic restrictions, let in foreign banks, threw the doors open to imports, and empowered the private sector. Damascus and other cities long mired in drabness saw a flourishing of shopping malls, new restaurants, and consumer goods. Tourism swelled.

Abroad, he stuck to the line his father had set, based on the alliance with Iran and a policy of insisting on a full return of the Israel-annexed Golan Heights, although in practice Assad never militarily confronted Israel.

In 2005, he suffered a heavy blow with the loss of Syria’s decades-old control over neighboring Lebanon after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. With many Lebanese accusing Damascus of being behind the slaying, Syria was forced to withdraw its troops from the country and a pro-American government came to power.

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Bashar Assad, second right, is seen during the closing session of the ruling Baath party congress in Damascus, Syria, June 20, 2000. (SANA via AP, File)
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Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, left, and his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad sign documents during a meeting in Damascus, Syria, March 7, 2005. (AP Photo, File)

At the same time, the Arab world split into two camps — one of U.S.-allied, Sunni-led countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the other of Syria and Shiite-led Iran with their ties to Hezbollah and Palestinian militants.

Throughout, Assad relied largely on the same power base at home as his father: his Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam comprising around 10% of the population. Many of the positions in his government went to younger generations of the same families that had worked for his father. Drawn in as well were members of the new middle class created by his reforms, including prominent Sunni merchant families.

Assad also turned to his own family. His younger brother Maher headed the elite Presidential Guard and would lead the crackdown against the uprising. Their sister Bushra was a strong voice in his inner circle, along with her husband, Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat, until he was killed in a 2012 bombing. Bashar’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, became the country’s biggest businessman, heading a financial empire before the two had a falling out that led to Makhlouf being pushed aside.

Assad also increasingly entrusted key roles to his wife, Asma, before she announced in May that she was undergoing treatment for leukemia and stepped out of the limelight.

When 2011 protests erupted in Tunisia and Egypt, eventually toppling their rulers, Assad dismissed the possibility of the same occurring in Syria, insisting his regime was more in tune with its people. After the Arab Spring wave reached Syria, his security forces staged a brutal crackdown while Assad consistently denied he faced a popular revolt. He instead blamed “foreign-backed terrorists” for trying to destabilize his regime.

His rhetoric struck a chord with many in Syria’s minority groups — including Christians, Druze, and Shiites — as well as some Sunnis who feared the prospect of rule by Sunni extremists even more than they disliked Assad’s authoritarian rule.

As the uprising spiraled into a civil war, millions of Syrians fled to Jordan, Turkey, Iraq,q and Lebanon and on to Europe.

Ironically, on Feb. 26, 2011, two days after the fall of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak to protesters and just days before the wave of Arab Spring protests swept into his country, Assad emailed a joke he had seen mocking the Egyptian leader’s stubborn refusal to step down.

Bashar Barhoum woke in his dungeon prison cell in Damascus at dawn Sunday, thinking it would be the last day of his life.

The 63-year-old writer was supposed to have been executed after being imprisoned for seven months.

But he soon realized the men at the door weren’t from former Syrian President Bashar Assad’s notorious security forces, ready to take him to his death. Instead, they were rebels coming to set him free.

As the insurgents swept across Syria in just 10 days to bring an end to the Assad family’s 50-year rule, they broke into prisons and security facilities to free political prisoners and many of the tens of thousands of people who disappeared since the conflict began back in 2011.

Barhoum was one of those freed who were celebrating in Damascus.

“I haven’t seen the sun until today,” Barhoum told The Associated Press after walking in disbelief through the streets of Damascus. “Instead of being dead tomorrow, thank God, he gave me a new lease of life.”

Barhoum couldn’t find his cell phone and belongings in the prison so set off to find a way to tell his wife and daughters that he was alive and well.

Videos shared widely across social media showed dozens of prisoners running in celebration after the insurgents released them, some barefoot and others wearing little clothing. One of them screams in celebration after he finds out that the government has fallen.

Torture, executions, and starvation in Syria’s prisons

Syria’s prisons have been infamous for their harsh conditions. Torture is systematic, say human rights groups, whistleblowers, and former detainees. Secret executions have been reported at more than two dozen facilities run by Syrian intelligence, as well as at other sites.

In 2013, a Syrian military defector, known as “Caesar,” smuggled out over 53,000 photographs that human rights groups say showed clear evidence of rampant torture, but also disease, and starvation in Syria’s prison facilities.

Syria’s feared security apparatus and prisons did not only serve to isolate Assad’s opponents, but also to instill fear among his own people said Lina Khatib, Associate Fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at the London think tank Chatham House.

“Anxiety about being thrown in one of Assad’s notorious prisons created wide mistrust among Syrians,” Khatib said. “Assad nurtured this culture of fear to maintain control and crush political opposition.”

Just north of Damascus in the Saydnaya military prison, known as the “human slaughterhouse,” women detainees, some with their children, screamed as men broke the locks off their cell doors. Amnesty International and other groups say that dozens of people were secretly executed every week in Saydnaya, estimating that up to 13,000 Syrians were killed between 2011 and 2016.

“Don’t be afraid … Bashar Assad has fallen! Why are you afraid?” said one of the rebels as he tried to rush streams of women out of their jam-packed tiny cells.

Tens of thousands of detainees have so far been freed, said Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based pro-opposition war monitor.

Over the past 10 days, insurgents freed prisoners in cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama as well as Damascus.

Families seek loved ones who have been missing for years

Omar Alshogre, who was detained for three years and survived relentless torture, watched in awe from his home far from Syria as videos showed dozens of detainees fleeing.

“A hundred democracies in the world had done nothing to help them, and now a few military groups came down and broke open prison after prison,” Alshogre, a human rights advocate who now resides in Sweden and the U.S., told The Associated Press.

Meanwhile, families of detainees and the disappeared skipped celebrations of the downfall of the Assad dynasty. Instead, they waited outside prisons and security branch centers, hoping their loved ones would be there. They had high expectations for the newcomers who will now run the battered country.

“This happiness will not be completed until I can see my son out of prison and know where he is,” said Bassam Masri. “I have been searching for him for two hours. He has been detained for 13 years,” since the start of the Syrian uprising in 2011.

Rebels struggled to control the chaos as crowds gathered by the Court of Justice in Damascus.

Heba, who only gave her first name while speaking to the AP, said she was looking for her brother and brother-in-law who were detained while reporting a stolen car in 2011 and hadn’t been seen since.

“They took away so many of us,” said Heba, whose mother’s cousin also disappeared. “We know nothing about them ... They (the Assad government) burned our hearts.”

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the militant leader whose stunning insurgency toppled Syria’s President Bashar Assad, has spent years working to remake his public image, renouncing longtime ties to al-Qaida and depicting himself as a champion of pluralism and tolerance. As he entered Damascus behind his victorious fighters Sunday, he even dropped his nom de guerre and referred to himself by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa.

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The extent of that transformation from jihadi extremist to would-be state builder is now put to the test.

Insurgents control Damascus, Assad has fled into hiding, and for the first time after 50 years of his family’s iron hand, it is an open question how Syria will be governed.

Syria is home to multiple ethnic and religious communities, often pitted against each other by Assad’s state and years of war. Many of them fear the possibility that Sunni Islamist extremists will take over. The country is also fragmented among disparate armed factions, and foreign powers from Russia and Iran to the United States, Turkey and Israel all have their hands in the mix.

Hours after Damascus’ capture, the 42-year-old al-Sharaa made his first appearance in the city’s landmark Umayyad Mosque, declaring Assad’s fall “a victory for the Islamic nation.” A senior rebel commander, Anas Salkhadi, appeared on state TV to declare, “Our message to all the sects of Syria, is that we tell them that Syria is for everyone,”

Al-Sharaa, who has been labeled a terrorist by the United States, and his insurgent force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS – many of whose fighters are jihadis -- now stand to be a major player.

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Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)
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Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)

For years, al-Sharaa worked to consolidate power, while bottled up in the province of Idlib in Syria’s northwest corner as Assad’s Iranian- and Russian-backed rule over much of the country appeared solid.

He maneuvered among extremist organizations while eliminating competitors and former allies. He sought to polish the image of his de-facto “salvation government” that has been running Idlib to win over international governments and reassure Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities. He built ties with various tribes and other groups.

Along the way, he shed his garb as a hard-line Islamist guerrilla and put on suits for press interviews, talking of building state institutions and decentralizing power to reflect Syria’s diversity.

“Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, no one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions,” he said in an interview with CNN last week, offering the possibility that HTS would eventually be dissolved after Assad falls.

“Don’t judge by words, but by actions,” he said.

Al-Golani’s beginnings in Iraq

Throughout his rise through extremist ranks, al-Sharaa was only known by the jihadi nickname he adopted, Abu Mohammed al-Golani. His ties to al-Qaida stretch back to 2003 when he joined insurgents battling U.S. troops in Iraq. The Syrian native was detained by the U.S. military but remained in Iraq. During that time, al-Qaida usurped like-minded groups and formed the extremist Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

In 2011, a popular uprising in Syria against Assad triggered a brutal government crackdown and led to all-out war. Al-Golani’s prominence grew when al-Baghdadi sent him to Syria to establish a branch of al-Qaida called the Nusra Front. The United States labeled the new group as a terrorist organization. That designation still remains in place and the U.S. government has put a $10 million bounty on him.

The Nusra Front and the Syrian Conflict

As Syria’s civil war intensified in 2013, so did al-Golani’s ambitions. He defied al-Baghdadi’s calls to dissolve the Nusra Front and merge it with al-Qaida’s operation in Iraq, to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.

Al-Golani nonetheless pledged his allegiance to al-Qaida, which later disassociated itself from ISIS. The Nusra Front battled ISIS and eliminated much of its competition among the Syrian armed opposition to Assad.

In his first interview in 2014, al-Golani kept his face covered, telling a reporter for the Qatari network Al-Jazeera that he rejected political talks in Geneva to end the conflict. He said his goal was to see Syria ruled under Islamic law and made clear that there was no room for the country’s Alawite, Shiite, Druze and Christian minorities.

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Syrian opposition fighters stand atop a seized military armored vehicle on the outskirts of Hama, Syria, Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
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Syrian opposition fighters seize ammunition abandoned by the army in the town of Khan Assubul, Syria, southwest of Aleppo, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024. Insurgents launched a two-pronged attack on Aleppo and the countryside around Idlib. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

Consolidating power and rebranding

In 2016, al-Golani revealed his face to the public for the first time in a video message that announced his group was renaming itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham -– the Syria Conquest Front -- and cutting its ties to al-Qaida.

“This new organization has no affiliation to any external entity,” he said in the video, filmed wearing military garb and a turban.

The move paved the way for al-Golani to assert full control over fracturing militant groups. A year later, his alliance rebranded again as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham -– meaning Organization for Liberating Syria -- as the groups merged, consolidating al-Golani’s power in northwest Syria’s Idlib province.

HTS later clashed with independent Islamist militants who opposed the merger, further emboldening al-Golani and his group as the leading power in northwestern Syria, able to rule with an iron fist.

With his power consolidated, al-Golani set in motion a transformation that few could have imagined. Replacing his military garb with a shirt and trousers, he began calling for religious tolerance and pluralism.

He appealed to the Druze community in Idlib, which the Nusra Front had previously targeted, and visited the families of Kurds who were killed by Turkish-backed militias.

In 2021, he had his first interview with an American journalist on PBS. Wearing a blazer, with his short hair gelled back, the now more soft-spoken HTS leader said that his group posed no threat to the West and that sanctions imposed against it were unjust.

“Yes, we have criticized Western policies,” he said. “But to wage a war against the United States or Europe from Syria, that’s not true. We didn’t say we wanted to fight.”

Syrians awakened on Monday to a hopeful if uncertain future, after rebels seized the capital Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, following 13 years of civil war and more than 50 years of his family's brutal rule.

The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations. Assad's fall wiped out a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world.
Moscow gave asylum to Assad and his family, Russian media reported and Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, said on his Telegram channel on Sunday.
International governments welcomed the end of the Assads' autocratic government, as they sought to take stock of a new-look Middle East.
U.S. President Joe Biden said Syria is in a period of risk and uncertainty, and it is the first time in years that neither Russia, Iran nor the Hezbollah militant organization held an influential role there.
HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the U.S., Turkey, and the United Nations, although it has spent years trying to soften its image to reassure international governments and minority groups within Syria.
Assad's overthrow limits Iran's ability to spread weapons to its allies and could cost Russia its Mediterranean naval base. It could also allow millions of refugees scattered for more than a decade in camps across Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan to finally return home.

NOW TO REBUILD

The rebels face a monumental task of rebuilding and running a country after a war that left hundreds of thousands dead, cities pounded to dust, and an economy hollowed by global sanctions. Syria will need billions of dollars in aid.
"A new history, my brothers, is being written in the entire region after this great victory," said Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the head of HTS.
Speaking to a huge crowd on Sunday at Damascus' Umayyad Mosque, a place of enormous religious significance, Golani said with hard work Syria would be "a beacon for the Islamic nation."
Assad's prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, told Sky News Arabia he would be willing to meet with Golani and was ready to provide documents and assistance for the transfer of power. He said he had no answer to the fate of the Syrian army.
"It is a question left to the brothers who will take over the management of the country's affairs, what concerns us today is the continuation of services for Syrians," he said.
The Assad police state was known as one of the harshest in the Middle East with hundreds of thousands of political prisoners held in horrifying conditions.
Item 1 of 5 People stand near a damaged statue of former Syrian president Hafez al-Assad after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, in Qamishli, Syria December 8, 2024. REUTERS/Orhan Qereman
On Sunday, elated but often confused inmates poured out of jails. Reunited families wept in joy. Newly freed prisoners were filmed running through the Damascus streets holding up their hands to show how many years they had been in prison.
The White Helmets rescue organization said it had dispatched emergency teams to search for hidden underground cells still believed to hold detainees.
With a curfew declared by the rebels, Damascus was calm after dawn on Monday, with shops closed and streets in the city largely empty.
The majority of people seen were rebels, dressed in fatigues and carrying weapons, while many cars had license plates from the northwestern province of Idlib, where the rebel offensive was launched 12 days ago.
Near downtown, a single bookseller could be seen carefully laying novels out on a ledge.
The rebel coalition said it was working to complete the transfer of power to a transitional governing body with executive powers, referring to building "a Syria together."
Golani is a Sunni Muslim, which is the majority in Syria, but the country is home to a wide range of religious sects, including Christians and Assad's fellow Alawites, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.

WORLD STUNNED

The pace of events stunned world capitals and prompted an outpouring of celebrations from the Syrian diaspora. In Sydney, people paraded in cars while waving Syrian flags, danced in the streets, and set off fireworks.
It also raised concerns about more regional instability on top of the Gaza war, Israel's attacks on Lebanon, and tensions between Israel and Iran.
The U.S. Central Command said its forces conducted dozens of airstrikes targeting known Islamic State camps and operatives in central Syria on Sunday.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Sunday he spoke with Turkish Minister of National Defense Yasar Guler, emphasizing the importance of protecting civilians and that the United States is watching closely.
During Syria's civil war, which erupted in 2011 as an uprising against Assad, his forces and their Russian allies bombed cities to rubble. The refugee crisis across the Middle East was one of the biggest of modern times and caused a political reckoning in Europe when a million people arrived in 2015.
In recent years, Turkey had backed some rebels in a small redoubt in the northwest and along its border. The United States, which has about 900 troops in Syria, backed a Kurdish-led alliance that fought Islamic State jihadists from 2014-2017.
After 13 years of civil war, Syria's opposition militias sensed an opportunity to loosen President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power when, about six months ago, they communicated to Turkey plans for a major offensive and felt they had received its tacit approval, two sources with knowledge of the planning said.
Launched barely two weeks ago, the operation's speedy success in achieving its initial goal - seizing Syria's second city, Aleppo - took almost everybody by surprise. From there, in a little more than a week, the rebel alliance reached Damascus and on Sunday put an end to five decades of Assad family rule.
The lightning advance relied on an almost perfect alignment of stars for the forces opposed to Assad: his army was demoralized and exhausted; his main allies, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, were severely weakened by conflict with Israel; and his other key military supporter, Russia, was distracted and losing interest.
There was no way the rebels could go ahead without first notifying Turkey, which has been a main backer of the Syrian opposition from the war's earliest days, said the sources, a diplomat in the region and a member of the Syrian opposition.
Turkey has troops on the ground in northwest Syria, and provides support to some of the rebels who intend to take part, including the Syrian National Army (SNA) - though it considers the main faction in the alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to be a terror group.
The rebels' bold plan was the brainchild of HTS and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the diplomat said.
Because of his former ties to al Qaeda, Golani is designated as a terrorist by Washington, Europe, and Turkey.
However, over the past decade, HTS, previously known as the Nusra Front, has tried to moderate its image, while running a quasi-state centered on Idlib, where, experts say, it levied taxes on commercial activities and the population.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's government, which struck a deal with Russia in 2020 to de-escalate fighting in northwestern Syria, has long opposed such a major rebel offensive, fearing it would lead to a new wave of refugees crossing its border.
However, the rebels sensed a stiffening of Ankara's stance towards Assad earlier this year, the sources said, after he rebuffed repeated overtures from Erdogan aimed at advancing a political solution to the military stalemate, which has left Syria divided between the regime and a patchwork of rebel groups with an array of foreign backers.
The Syrian opposition source said the rebels had shown Turkey details of the planning after Ankara's attempts to engage Assad had failed.
The message was: "That other path hasn't worked for years - so try ours. You don't have to do anything, just don't intervene."
Reuters was unable to determine the exact nature of the communications. H and Al-Bahra, head of the internationally-recognized Syrian opposition abroad, told Reuters last week that HTS and SNA had had "limited" planning together ahead of the operation and agreed to "achieve cooperation and not clash with each other". He added that Turkey's military saw what the armed groups were doing and discussing.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Doha on Sunday, said Erdogan’s effort in recent months to reach out to Assad failed and Turkey "knew something was coming".
However, Turkey's deputy minister for foreign affairs, Nuh Yilmaz, told a conference on Middle Eastern affairs in Bahrain on Sunday that Ankara was not behind the offensive, and did not provide its consent, saying it was concerned about instability.
Turkey's foreign and defense ministries did not respond directly to Reuter's questions about an HTS-Ankara understanding of the Aleppo operation. In reply to questions about Turkey's awareness of battlefield preparations, a Turkish official told Reuters that the HTS "does not receive orders or direction from us (and) does not coordinate its operations with us either."
The official said that "in that sense" it would not be correct to say that the operation in Aleppo was carried out with Turkey's approval or green light. Turkish intelligence agency MIT did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Reuters was unable to reach a representative for HTS.

VULNERABLE

The rebels struck when Assad was at his most vulnerable.
Distracted by wars elsewhere, his military allies Russia, Iran, and Lebanon's Hezbollah failed to mobilise the kind of decisive firepower that had propped him up for years.
Syria's weak armed forces were unable to resist. A regime source told Reuters that tanks and planes were left with no fuel because of corruption and looting - an illustration of just how hollowed out the Syrian state had become.
Over the past two years morale had severely eroded in the army, said the source, who requested anonymity because of fear of retribution.
Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a Middle-East-focused think-tank, said the HTS-led coalition was stronger and more coherent than any previous rebel force during the war, "and a lot of that is Abu Mohammed al-Golani’s doing". But, he said, the regime's weakness was the deciding factor.
"After they lost Aleppo like that, regime forces never recovered and the more the rebels advanced, the weaker Assad’s army got," he said.
The pace of the rebel advances, with Hama being captured on Dec. 5 and Homs falling on or around Sunday at the same time government forces lost Damascus, exceeded expectations.
"There was a window of opportunity but no one expected the regime to crumble this fast. Everyone expected some fight," said Bassam Al-Kuwatli, president of the Syrian Liberal Party, a small opposition group, who is based outside Syria.
A U.S. official said on condition of anonymity that while Washington had been aware of Turkey’s overall support for the rebels, it was not informed of any tacit Turkish approval for the Aleppo offensive. The White House National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Turkey's role.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday said that Russia's abandonment of Assad led to his downfall, adding that Moscow never should have protected him in the first place and then lost interest because of a war in Ukraine that never should have started.
Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday noted his country's role in weakening Hezbollah, which sources told Reuters withdrew its remaining troops from Syria on Saturday.

GAZA FALLOUT

Sources familiar with Hezbollah deployments said the Iran-backed group, which propped up Assad early in the war, had already withdrawn many of its elite fighters from Syria over the last year to support the group as it waged hostilities with Israel - a conflict that spilled over from the Gaza war.
Israel dealt Hezbollah heavy blows, particularly after launching an offensive in September, killing the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah and many of its commanders and fighters.
The rebel offensive in Syria began the same day as a ceasefire came into effect in the Lebanon conflict on Nov. 27. The sources familiar with Hezbollah said it did not want to engage in big battles in Syria as the group focused on starting a long road to recovery from the heavy blows.
For the rebel alliance, the withdrawal of Hezbollah presented a valuable opportunity. "We just wanted a fair fight between us and the regime," the Syrian opposition source said.
Assad's fall marks a major blow to Iranian influence in the Middle East, coming so swiftly after the killing of Nasrallah and the damage done by Israel to Hezbollah.
Turkey, on the other hand, now appears to be Syria's most powerful external player, with troops on the ground and access to the rebel leaders.
In addition to securing the return of Syrian refugees, Turkey's objectives include curbing the power of Syrian Kurdish groups that control wide areas of northeast Syria and are backed by the United States. Ankara deems them to be terrorists.
As part of the initial offensive, the Turkey-backed SNA seized swathes of territory, including the city of Tel Refaat, from U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. On Sunday, a Turkish security source said the rebels entered the northern city of Manbij after pushing the Kurds back again.
"Turkey is the biggest outside winner here. Erdogan turned out to be on the right - or at least winning - side of history here because his proxies in Syria won the day," said Birol Baskan, Turkey-based political scientist and former non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.

More than 50 years of Assad family rule in Syria collapsed with astonishing speed after insurgents burst out of a rebel-held enclave in the country’s north, capturing Aleppo and a string of other cities in a matter of days, before converging on Damascus.  

Opposition forces entered the capital with little or no resistance on Sunday as the Syrian army melted away and President Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s ruler for 24 years, fled the country. His sudden demise marks a stunning development in Syria’s devastating 14-year conflict, which began with Assad’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protests in 2011, at the height of the Arab Spring. 

The speed of the rebels' victory has highlighted Islamist leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani's success in shoring up a rebellion that looked to be cornered in its last bastion in northwestern Syria. It also exposed the weakness of the Assad regime and just how reliant it was on support from Iran and Russia – which at the crucial moment did not come.

  • Army hollowed out 

Assad's army has been reduced to little more than a hollow shell after a 14-year war that killed more than half a million people, displaced half of Syria’s prewar population of 23 million, and devastated the country's economy and infrastructure.  

In the war's early years, experts said a combination of casualties, defections, and draft-dodging saw the military lose around half of its 300,000-strong force. Corrupt and demoralized, the army was caught unawares when rebels suddenly burst out of their redoubt in Idlib province on November 27, meeting little resistance.

La gente se abraza mientras se reúnen en Trafalgar Square, después de que los rebeldes sirios anunciaron que han derrocado a Bashar al-Assad, en Londres, Reino Unido, el 8 de diciembre de 2024.
La gente se abraza mientras se reúnen en Trafalgar Square, después de que los rebeldes sirios anunciaron que han derrocado a Bashar al-Assad, en Londres, Reino Unido, el 8 de diciembre de 2024. © Mina Kim / REUTERS

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, reported soldiers repeatedly evacuating positions across the country as the insurgents pushed forward, seizing one city after another.  

"Since 2011, Syria's army has faced attrition in manpower, equipment, and morale," said David Rigoulet-Roze, a Syria expert at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs. Underpaid soldiers reportedly looted resources to survive, and many young men evaded conscription, he told AFP.    

On Wednesday, Assad ordered a 50 percent raise in career soldiers' pay in a desperate effort to bolster his crumbling army. But with Syria's economy in tatters, soldiers' salaries are almost worthless and the move had little impact.    

  • Allies weakened and distracted  

Over the years, Assad has relied heavily on military, political,l and diplomatic support from key allies Russia and Iran, without whom his regime would almost certainly have collapsed much earlier in the war. With their help, the regime clawed back territory lost after the conflict erupted in 2011, and Russia's 2015 intervention with air power changed the tide of the war in Assad's favour.  

However, last month's rebel offensive came as Russia remains mired in its war in Ukraine, and its air strikes this time failed to hold back the Islamist-led rebels who swept across swathes of the country.  

“The Russians would have liked to help the Syrian regime more – but their military resources in Syria are much reduced as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine,” said FRANCE 24’s Middle East expert Wassim Nasr.  

Assad's other key ally Iran has long provided military advisers to Syria's armed forces and supported pro-government armed groups on the ground. But Iran and its allied groups suffered huge setbacks in fighting with Israel this year and this presented Syria’s insurgents with a window of opportunity to strike at an isolated Assad.  

© France 24

“The Syrian rebels have a long blood debt with Iran and the offensive happened now because Iran and its allies were too weak to keep bolstering the Syrian regime,” explained FRANCE 24’s Nasr.  

  • Hezbollah out of action  

Iran’s Lebanese proxy force Hezbollah has openly backed Damascus on the ground since 2013, sending thousands of fighters across the border to bolster the Syrian army. But the rebels launched their offensive late last month on the same day that a ceasefire went into effect between Israel and Hezbollah, after more than a year of hostilities in Lebanon.  

Hezbollah had shifted many of its fighters from Syria to south Lebanon to face off with Israel, weakening its presence in the neighboring country. The fighting decimated Hezbollah's leadership, with the group's longtime chief Hassan Nasrallah, his presumed successor, and a string of senior commanders killed in Israeli air strikes.  

On Sunday, as Syrian insurgents surged into Damascus unopposed, a source close to Hezbollah said the group was pulling its remaining forces from the outskirts of the capital and the Homs area near the border.

Reacting to Assad’s demise, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu described the Syrian regime’s fall as “a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, Assad's main supporters”.  

© France 24

US President Joe Biden has also claimed that the US and its allies had weakened Syria's backers – Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. He said that “for the first time” Assad’s allies could no longer defend his grip on power, adding: “Our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East.” 

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