A recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey reveals a growing anxiety among workers about potential job losses due to AI and economic uncertainty, yet this fear isn't leading them to lower their salary expectations.
The survey, which polls approximately 1,000 people quarterly, found that a record 4.4% of respondents anticipate losing their jobs soon—a level only previously seen during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. This heightened fear aligns with recent trends of companies like Klarna and Cisco publicly discussing replacing human workers with AI.
Despite this job insecurity, workers' average "reservation wage"—the minimum acceptable salary for a new job—has risen to $81,147, nearly $20,000 higher than in March 2020. This suggests that workers are seeking higher pay in their next roles, potentially to maximize earnings while they still have employment opportunities.
The survey also indicates widespread dissatisfaction with current wages and promotion prospects, particularly among women, those without college degrees, and individuals with lower household incomes (below $60,000). This dissatisfaction likely contributes to the desire for higher pay in new roles.
Interestingly, despite the increased fear of job loss, more people are actively searching for new jobs now than during the Great Resignation. Nearly 30% of respondents reported actively job hunting, the highest level since March 2014, compared to just over 20% during the peak of the Great Resignation in spring 2021. Furthermore, the rate of successful job transitions has also reached a record high of 7.1%, significantly higher than the sub-5% rate observed during the Great Resignation.
In summary, while workers are increasingly worried about job security due to AI and economic factors, they are simultaneously demanding higher salaries and actively seeking new employment opportunities at a rate surpassing even the Great Resignation.