Texas is poised to surpass California as the most populous state in the United States by 2045, according to a recent report from Realtor.com. The real estate company, which recently relocated its headquarters from California to Austin, predicts that Texas' population will reach 42 million by that year—a 35% increase from its current population of nearly 31 million.
This demographic shift could significantly alter the political and cultural landscape not only in Texas but across the U.S., potentially increasing Texas' congressional representation and strengthening separatist sentiments within the Lone Star State, according to experts. Newsweek reached out to Texas Governor Greg Abbott for comment on the projections.
### Population Boom
Over the past decade, Texas has experienced substantial population growth, adding nearly four million residents between 2013 and 2023—more than any other state. Census Bureau data shows that from July 2023 to July 2024, Texas' population grew by 562,941, resulting in an annualized growth rate of 1.8%, the third highest in the nation after Florida and the District of Columbia.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, Texas' population increased from 29.1 million to 31.3 million, representing an 8% rise over just four years. Realtor.com attributes part of this growth to internal migration, particularly during the COVID-19 era when health restrictions were less stringent in Texas compared to many Democratic-led states. In 2019, about 20% of Realtor.com's home shoppers came from out-of-state, but this figure surged to 33% by April 2023.
California has been a significant source of internal migrants, with approximately 102,000 people moving to Texas from California in 2022 alone, according to the Texas Realtors' 2024 Texas Relocation Report. This trend has become so prevalent it has earned the nickname "Texafornia." An analysis of Census Bureau data indicates that 37% of Californians relocating to Texas did so for a change in climate, followed by new job opportunities (36%), the desire to own a home rather than rent (31%), and job loss or searches (10%).
Crime rates may also play a role, as California saw a 30% increase in its homicide rate between 2019 and 2020, while Texas experienced a 4% decrease over the same period, according to FBI and Texas Department of Public Safety figures.
### Economic Growth
The Texan economy has thrived in recent years, outpacing national economic performance. Statista data reveals that during the pandemic in 2020, Texas' economy contracted by only 1.8%, compared to the national average of 3.5%. Subsequent years saw robust growth: 5.9% in 2021, 3.9% in 2022, and a notable 7.4% in 2023.
Several major corporations have relocated their headquarters to Texas from California, including Chevron, Charles Schwab Corp., and Elon Musk's companies, X (formerly Twitter) and SpaceX. Musk cited California Governor Gavin Newsom's approval of legislation restricting teachers from informing parents about their children's gender identity changes as the reason for his move to Starbase, Texas. He criticized what he perceives as anti-family and anti-business policies in California.
The housing market in Texas remains relatively affordable, with the state accounting for 15% of all home-building approvals nationwide in 2024 despite having only 9% of the U.S. population. As of December 2024, the median list price for homes in Texas was $360,000, approximately $40,000 below the national average.
Joshua Blank, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, noted: "Texas offers a dynamic job market spread across multiple metropolitan areas, along with relatively affordable housing compared to states like California and New York."
### Political Power
Texas' growing population has already bolstered its political influence, gaining two additional seats in the House of Representatives and two more Electoral College votes following the 2020 U.S. Census. If Texas continues to outpace national population growth, its political clout will likely expand further.
"The process of demographic change leading to political change is gradual," Blank explained. "However, Texas is rapidly diversifying, with a youthful population concentrated in its metropolitan areas. While overtaking California in population will enhance Texas' weight in national discussions through its larger congressional delegation, the underlying factors driving these changes are already underway."
For years, Democrats hoped demographic shifts, especially the rising Hispanic population, would make Texas competitive for their party. However, in the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump made notable gains among Hispanic and Black voters, challenging previous assumptions about Texas' political trajectory.
Thomas Gift, a political scientist at University College London, observed: "As Republicans successfully engage more diverse demographics, the expectation that population growth will automatically benefit Democrats may no longer hold true."
Nationally, the success of Republican-controlled states like Texas and Florida contrasts with the stagnation of some Democratic-leaning states. From July 2021 to July 2022, Florida and Texas saw population increases of 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively, while California, New York, Illinois, and Oregon recorded declines.
### Separatism and Cultural Shifts
Daniel Miller, president of the Texas Nationalist Movement, suggested that Texas' growing strength could heighten tensions with the federal government. He remarked: "The projected population growth underscores what we've seen for generations: Texas works. People are drawn here by our culture, values, and opportunities. But with this growth comes a challenge—sending billions more to Washington each year than we receive back. Under the current system, more growth means more Texans' hard-earned dollars being redirected to support failing policies elsewhere."
Miller advocates for Texan self-governance aligned with local values rather than those imposed by federal bureaucrats. In June 2024, the Republican Party of Texas declared introducing a bill calling for an independence referendum a "legislative priority" in the next session of the Texas Legislature.
Culturally, Texas has undergone significant demographic transformations, with Hispanics becoming the largest single ethnic group, comprising 40.2% of the population as of July 2022, compared to 39.8% for non-Hispanic whites. This shift has brought Mexican and Latin American influences into mainstream Texan life, altering food, traditions, and social practices.
Additionally, Texas' population is aging, with projections indicating that the number of Texans aged 65 and older will grow by 88% between 2023 and 2050, while the 45-64 age group will increase by 57%. These demographic trends promise to shape the future cultural and social fabric of the Lone Star State.