Artificial intelligence promised to streamline our lives, including the way we work. From drafting emails to crunching data, AI tools have become workplace staples, hinting at a future where efficiency reigns supreme. But as we settle into 2025, a paradox is emerging: the same technology designed to help job seekers might be making it harder to land a gig. Experts Michael B. Horn and Bob Moesta argue that AI is quietly reshaping the labor market into a "doom loop" that could leave many applicants out in the cold. Here’s why—and what it means for anyone hunting for a job today.
The AI Job Application Boom
It starts with a flood. Job seekers have embraced AI-powered tools to turbocharge their applications—think resume builders that tweak keywords for every posting or bots that auto-apply to dozens of openings in minutes. On the surface, this sounds like a win: more applications, more chances. But the reality is messier. Employers, already drowning in hundreds of resumes per role, now face thousands, thanks to these automated tools. A hiring manager who once sifted through 200 applications might now see 2,000, most of them polished to perfection by AI but lacking soul or context.
This deluge has a ripple effect. Overwhelmed recruiters are losing faith in the glossy, AI-tailored resumes piling up in their inboxes. Instead of digging through the digital haystack, many are turning to a tried-and-true shortcut: personal referrals. Horn and Moesta point out that companies, skeptical of faceless applicants, are leaning harder on trusted networks to fill roles. It’s a shift that echoes an old truth—most jobs, even in our tech-driven age, still come through who you know, not what you submit online.
The Employer’s Side: AI’s Early Wins and Current Woes
AI isn’t new to hiring. Back in the 2010s, companies rolled out applicant tracking systems (ATS) powered by algorithms to filter resumes, hoping to spot the best fits fast. It worked—sort of. The tech slashed the time spent on initial reviews, but it didn’t crack the code of finding the right hires. Studies suggest that even with ATS, the majority of hires still come from referrals, not the online applicant pool. Why? Trust. A resume can dazzle, but a recommendation from a colleague carries weight no algorithm can match.
Now, with AI flooding the system from the seeker’s side, employers face a new challenge: distinguishing signal from noise. The sheer volume of applications—many near-identical thanks to AI optimization—makes it tougher to spot genuine talent. As a result, some firms are doubling down on network-based hiring, sidelining the open market where most job seekers compete. It’s a move that could shrink opportunities for those without insider connections, especially in a labor market already tightening for white-collar roles.
A Doom Loop in Action
Horn and Moesta call it a "doom loop" for a reason. As job seekers lean on AI to apply en masse, employers retreat from public postings, favoring referrals or internal candidates. This pushes seekers to rely even more on AI tools to stand out, flooding the system further and deepening the cycle. The result? A hiring process that’s less accessible and more exclusive, even as technology promises the opposite.
For companies, this loop risks homogeneity. Referral-heavy hiring often pulls from the same social circles, undermining efforts to diversify workforces. For job seekers, it’s a double blow: not only is the online application game harder to win, but the odds tilt toward those with established networks—leaving newcomers, career switchers, or the unconnected at a disadvantage.
Breaking the Cycle: What Can Be Done?
So, is AI a job seeker’s friend or foe? It’s both—and neither. The tools aren’t going away, but their impact depends on how we adapt. For individuals, the answer might lie in blending tech with humanity. Use AI to polish your resume, sure, but pair it with old-school hustle: informational interviews, LinkedIn outreach, or industry meetups. A personal touch can cut through the AI noise.
For employers, the fix is thornier. Some are experimenting with smarter filters—think AI that flags not just keywords but patterns of creativity or grit. Others are rethinking job postings entirely, crafting descriptions so specific that only the truly qualified (and human) apply. But the bigger shift might need to come from trust: finding ways to vet online applicants that don’t default to "who knows who."
The Road Ahead
As 2025 unfolds, AI’s role in the job market is a double-edged sword. It’s amplifying efficiency on both sides—seekers applying faster, employers filtering quicker—but it’s also widening gaps between the networked and the not. Horn and Moesta warn that without a course correction, this doom loop could lock out talent at a time when innovation demands fresh voices. The irony? A technology built to open doors might end up closing them—unless we figure out how to wield it wisely. For now, job seekers might want to keep their AI tools handy, but their networks closer.