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Major automakers can deal with President Donald Trump's tariffs on U.S. auto imports in several ways, but all of them lead to higher prices, fewer choices of models or limits on features for consumers, industry experts said.
Trump announced 25% tariffs on car and auto parts on Wednesday, sending global automakers' shares down and raising fears of job losses in big auto-exporting countries. He says the levies will ultimately boost production in the United States, but analysts say the immediate effect will be on automakers' choices that will hit consumers' wallets.
"Most car makers can't eat 25%, they just can't," said Andy Palmer, former CEO of Aston Martin. "That means car makers will pass on as much of the cost of tariffs as they can," including by removing features to lower their costs while also raising prices.


Automakers may spread that cost between U.S.-produced and imported models, cut back on features, and in some cases, stop selling affordable models aimed at first-time car buyers, as many of those are imported and less attractive if they carry a higher price tag.
The changes could price more Americans out of the market. S&P Global Mobility estimated Thursday that tariffs will cause annual U.S. vehicle sales to fall to a range of 14.5 million to 15 million in the coming years from 16 million in 2024. Cox Automotive estimates tariffs will add $3,000 to the cost of a U.S.-made vehicle and $6,000 to vehicles made in Canada or Mexico without exemptions.
While luxury sellers like Bentley or Ferrari say they will pass on costs, major automakers' typical margins of 6% to 8% leave little wiggle room.
Affordable models most likely to be affected include the Honda CR-V, Chevy Trax, Subaru Forester, Chevy Equinox, and Honda HR-V, said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox.
"Car makers know they have certain vehicles in their portfolio that can tolerate lower profit margins," Keating said. "Some vehicles may just prove to be too expensive, and most of those are affordable models manufactured outside the U.S."
After 10% of the car-buying population was priced out of the market during the coronavirus pandemic, affordability still remains high on consumers' minds, Keating said.
"Would tariffs bite into another 10% of people who would be priced out?" she said. "Potentially."

U.S. auto dealers currently have plenty of inventory - about 90 days' worth - but prices could start to rise after that. In recent weeks, Eric Mann, sales manager at the Szott M-59 Jeep dealership in White Lake, Michigan, 45 minutes northwest of Detroit, noticed more customers purchasing out of fear of higher prices.
Loretta Acosta, 55, of Macomb, Michigan, was checking out a Jeep Grand Cherokee at the Szott dealership on Thursday and said it "might stink" if car prices rise because of tariffs. "But I do feel like sometimes stuff stinks, and you got to put up with it for the betterment of the country," Acosta said.

'EVERYONE HURTS'

European and Asian car makers, deprived of the largest auto-importing market, could cut production. If automakers stop shipping a model to the U.S., that would translate into lower production at those factories. Lower volumes mean higher costs per vehicle, "which ultimately will be passed on to consumers" in those markets, Palmer said.
On Thursday, Jeron Reed, 46, of Warren, Michigan, went to Matick Chevrolet in Redford, 20 minutes west of Detroit, to finalize a lease on a 2025 Equinox EV because of the tariff threat.
"What I'm hearing within the next couple of weeks (is) prices are probably gonna jump, and they're already high," Reed said.
Some companies selling U.S.-made cars with a high percentage of tariff-exempt parts could raise prices to boost profits but still keep them low enough to take market share from tariff-affected rivals. Longer-term, major automakers would have to decide whether to ride out tariffs on a bet that they won't last, or spend two to three years moving production and supply chains under the expectations that tariffs would last beyond Trump's presidency, said Mark Wakefield, global automotive market lead at consultancy AlixPartners.
"Those ones could be big winners in three or four years if the tariffs really stay in," Wakefield said. "Or they could be losers if it somehow unwinds and they're stuck with higher costs."
Newer automakers like INEOS Automotive do not have that luxury. The France-based manufacturer started selling its off-road Grenadier model in the United States early last year at an average price of around $85,000, said CEO Lynn Calder. INEOS has since sold 8,000 vehicles in the U.S., or 60% of its total.
"I don't think it's possible to pass a price increase in the range of 25% onto a consumer," she said. "But equally, it's also very clear that we can't absorb it all."
She said INEOS will split the burden between the company, its dealers, and consumers, a hybrid solution where "everyone hurts."

 A federal judge who ordered the Trump administration to reinstate nearly 25,000 fired government employees said that he could narrow his ruling to workers based in Washington, D.C., and the 19 mostly Democratic-led states that sued over the mass firings.


U.S. District Judge James Bredar, during a hearing in Baltimore, Maryland, said he was concerned that he lacked the power to issue an order affecting states that are not involved in the lawsuit.

Bredar acknowledged that nationwide injunctions have become increasingly controversial and that judges' powers to issue them are unsettled. The Trump administration and other Republican officials have said that nationwide orders improperly limit the president's powers.

A federal court has given probationary government workers at least five more days on the job. Maryland Judge James K. Bredar, who had earlier ruled that laid-off probationary workers could return to their roles temporarily, said Wednesday he needed more time to weigh aspects of the case. At issue is whether workers in all states should be reinstated, or only those in states involved in an ongoing lawsuit. Nineteen states have sued to stop the firings, citing harm from the abrupt surge in unemployment.

What happens when your career gets caught in a political crossfire?

Imagine giving 10, 15, even 25+ years of your life to public service—only to find out your role has been deemed “non-essential” by an administration that doesn’t know your name, your contributions, or the communities you’ve served.

That’s the reality for thousands of federal workers right now, especially those in hashtaghealthcare and hashtagscience roles at agencies like U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and as this The New York Times article by Sheryl Gay Stolberg shows, the cuts aren’t always about performance—they’re about politics.

But…..
Your value isn’t up for debate just because your position is.
Your identity is not defined by the title you held in government.

Next steps?
•   Rebrand: You’re not “just” a public servant—you’re a subject matter expert with operational, regulatory, and crisis-response experience.
•   Network: It’s time to build connections in sectors that need your insight—whether it’s healthcare innovation, compliance, or policy consulting.
•   Achieve Recognition: You don’t have to shrink to fit a broken system. Let’s elevate your voice, your work, and your career story.

After President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all foreign-made cars purchased in the United States, one organization has surprisingly come out in support.

UAW’s support for tariffs

The United Auto Workers of America’s President, Shawn Fain, applauded the president’s move, calling it a “long-overdue shift away from a harmful economic framework.” In a statement released by the union, leaders said President Trump’s decision marked “the beginning of the end of a thirty-plus year ‘free trade’ disaster.” As those from the industrial Midwest can attest, communities have been decimated by the offshoring of jobs over the last four decades, with the automobile manufacturing sector being one of the hardest hit. While U.S. car manufacturers once powered the economies of many states and communities, over the last thirty years, a wake of economic disappearance has replaced the once prosperous communities as jobs were shipped overseas.

“This is a long-overdue shift away from a harmful economic framework that has devastated the working class and driven a race to the bottom across borders in the auto industry,” said the union, adding that these tariffs “prioritize the workers who build this country” over “the greed of ruthless corporations.”

Though anti-Trump voters criticize the plan to impose tariffs, as they will likely lead to higher costs for consumers—a fact that the White House has acknowledged—the policy also has the potential to reverse the economic philosophy that has guided presidents of both major parties since the Nixon administration.

UAW President Shawn Fain argued that “fixing our broken trade deals” is the first step in “ending the race to the bottom” that has plagued the U.S. auto industry and destroyed the livelihoods of millions of auto workers. Between 1990 and 2025, the number of workers involved in automobile manufacturing reached its highest level in June 2000, when 1.3 million people were employed in the sector. In the years that followed, and particularly after the financial crisis of 2008, employment dwindled, and by 2010, less than 700,000 workers were involved in automobile manufacturing. In February 2025, the BLS reported that just over a million workers were involved in the industry, representing less than 0.75 percent of the total labor force and earning an average wage of $32.13.

Some might look at these figures and see a sector that is already growing and not in need of federal support. However, upon closer examination, we see that in real terms, auto workers make less today than they did in the 1990s. If wages for auto workers had kept up with inflation, today they would make around $34 an hour—and the fact that the average sits below this figure highlights the deterioration in conditions offered to autoworkers over the last thirty years.

Tariffs are only the first step for the UAW

And though the UAW has come out in support of Trump’s tariffs, they warn that the imposition of these duties will not be enough to protect workers in the sector. Prosperity for autoworkers in the United States, according to President Fain, requires the protection of labor rights, “with a strong National Labor Relations Board, a decent retirement with Social Security benefits protected, healthcare for all workers including through Medicare and Medicaid, and dignity on and off the job.”

 President Donald Trump moved Thursday to end collective bargaining with federal labor unions in agencies with national security missions across the federal government, citing authority granted him under a 1978 law.

The order, signed without public fanfare and announced late Thursday, appears to touch most of the federal government. Affected agencies include the Departments of State, Defense, Veterans Affairs, Energy, Health and Human Services, Treasury, Justice, and Commerc,e and the part of Homeland Security responsible for border security.

Police and firefighters will continue to collectively bargain.

Trump said the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 gives him the authority to end collective bargaining with federal unions in these agencies because of their role in safeguarding national security.

The American Federation of Government Employees, which represents 820,000 federal and D.C. government workers, said late Thursday that it is “preparing immediate legal action and will fight relentlessly to protect our rights, our members, and all working Americans from these unprecedented attacks.”

“President Trump’s latest executive order is a disgraceful and retaliatory attack on the rights of hundreds of thousands of patriotic American civil servants — nearly one-third of whom are veterans — simply because they are members of a union that stands up to his harmful policies,” AFGE National President Everett Kelley said.

AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said in a statement, “It’s clear that this order is punishment for unions who are leading the fight against the administration’s illegal actions in court — and a blatant attempt to silence us.” She also vowed, “We will fight this outrageous attack on our members with every fiber of our collective being.”

The announcement builds on previous moves by the Trump administration to erode collective bargaining rights in the government.

Earlier this month, DHS said it was ending the collective bargaining agreement with the tens of thousands of frontline employees at the Transportation Security Administration. The TSA union called it an “unprovoked attack” and vowed to fight it.

A White House fact sheet on Thursday’s announcement says that “Certain Federal unions have declared war on President Trump’s agenda” and that Trump “refuses to let union obstruction interfere with his efforts to protect Americans and our national interests.”

“President Trump supports constructive partnerships with unions who work with him; he will not tolerate mass obstruction that jeopardizes his ability to manage agencies with vital national security missions,” the White House said.

Auto tariffs are here. Breaking down the announcement--and trying to read some tea leaves about the future. Pro tip: get to your car dealership this weekend.

1. Starting April 3, the U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on imported autos. There will also be a 25% tariff on imported major auto parts sometime before May 3, 2025. (Specific date for parts TBD).

2. The Fact Sheet accompanying the EO specified that covered car parts will include engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components, with other parts potentially to be added under a process established within 90 days.

3. These tariffs will be *in addition to* any other tariffs, e.g., the U.S. MFN tariff rate on autos of 2.5%, or China 301 tariffs. An important issue to watch next week is whether the "reciprocal" tariffs also hit autos, in which case that German-built Benz could be subject to a 47.5% tariff (20% reciprocal, according to the news, 25% new autos, and 2.5% MFN).

4. For a USMCA-qualifying imported car, such as a Ford car assembled in Mexico (The Ford Mach-e is an example), the importer can pay the 25% tariff on the value of the car LESS the value of the U.S. content. E.g., if the import value of the car is $40,000, and the U.S. content is 50%, the tariff would be on $20,000. A non-USMCA qualifying car built in Canada or Mexico will face the 25% tariff on the full value, regardless of U.S. content. (I think a BMW 3 series is an example of this).

5. USMCA-qualifying auto *parts,* such as a Canadian transmission, will not be tariffed until the Administration can figure out a way to apply the tariff only to the non-U.S. content of the part.

6. In terms of legal authorities, the tariffs rely on the 2019 Section 232 investigation of autos. I think there are arguments that this is stale, and wonder if we will see legal challenges. I expected that they might do a new rush-job investigation to avoid potential legal issues, but their lawyers must be comfortable with this approach. (Given companies don't want to sue the Administration, however, I increasingly feel I am just whistling into the wind by noting potential legal challenges).

From a trade policy and intellectual perspective, the most interesting aspect of the announcement is the creation of a system to deduct the value of U.S. content from the value of USMCA-qualifying imported cars. I have thought for more than a year that (a) the U.S. will likely move *towards* imposing tariffs on the Chinese content of third country products; and (b) that Trump *might* move towards excluding the U.S. content value of foreign-made products from U.S. tariffs. We now see evidence of (b). This could have implications for future Trump tariffs on a wide range of products. For example, if Trump imposes tariffs on foreign-made electronics, would he exclude the value of a U.S. semiconductor as a way of boosting U.S. semiconductor manufacturing?

California’s Move to Win Back Hollywood


California is doubling down on its film tax incentives in a major bid to reclaim its status as the entertainment capital of the world. A newly proposed bill, SB 630, would raise tax credits for productions in the state to 35%, with an additional 5% available for shooting in economic opportunity zones outside Los Angeles to encourage investment in underserved areas.

This move, led by Senator Ben Allen, is a direct response to the “runaway production” trend, where studios increasingly choose states like Georgia and New York, which already offer 30 %+ rebates (including above-the-line costs like salaries for actors and directors).

With California’s program currently capped at 20-25%, the state has been losing out on major projects.

What This Means for the Industry:

📌 Studios will have a stronger financial incentive to keep productions local rather than moving to other places with better subsidies.

📌 Sitcoms, animated productions, and large-scale competition shows (with $ 1 M+ budgets) would qualify, bringing a wider range of content into the fold.

Tax incentives have become a key factor in determining where productions are filmed. Studios and producers leverage these credits to optimize costs while balancing creative control and workforce considerations.

The bill also loosens restrictions on incentives for new studio infrastructure, signaling long-term growth for production facilities in California.

Will This Be Enough to Reverse the Trend?

Competing with states and countries that offer generous above-the-line rebates remains a challenge. However, by increasing incentives and broadening eligibility, California is making a strategic play to keep jobs, talent, and revenue at home.

If this bill passes, we could see a revival of California-based productions—and perhaps fewer title cards reading, “Filmed in Georgia.”

Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head Elon Musk and seven members of the team shed light on the department's cost-cutting mission in an exclusive sit-down interview with "Special Report" Thursday.

"We want to reduce spending by eliminating waste and fraud and reduce the spending by 15%, which seems really quite achievable," Musk told "Special Report" executive editor Bret Baier.

"The government is not efficient, and there's a lot of waste and fraud. So we feel confident that a 15% reduction can be done without affecting any of the critical government services."

Musk, along with DOGE members Steve Davis, Joe Gebbia, Aram Moghaddassi, Brad Smith, Anthony Armstrong, Tom Krause, and Tyler Hassen, added a behind-the-scenes glimpse at the department’s work from the Internal Revenue Service to the Department of Social Security. 

"This is a revolution. And I think it might be the biggest revolution in government since the original revolution. But at the end of the day, America's going to be in much better shape," he said. 

"It's going to be a fantastic future."

As of March 27, DOGE claims on its site that it has saved Americans $130 billion, or $807.45 per taxpayer.

President Donald Trump tasked the organization with optimizing the federal government, streamlining operations, and slashing spending and gave the agency 18 months to do it.

The department has canceled numerous diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives at federal agencies, consulting contracts, leases for underused federal buildings, and duplicate agencies and programs.

During the "Special Report" exclusive, Musk and the seven DOGE members illustrated key efforts of the department to achieve Trump's goal. Davis brought up federal credit cards, which he labeled a "mundane" but "illustrative" example of DOGE's work.

"There are around 4.6 million credit cards in the federal government for around 2.3 to 2.4 million employees. This doesn't make sense. So one of the things all of the teams have worked on is we've worked for the agencies and said, 'Do you need all of these credit cards? Are they being used? Can you tell us physically where they are?" Davis explained.

"Clearly there should not be more credit cards than there are people," Musk responded.

The eight-man group also discussed DOGE's work relating to the federal workforce, financial management, government infrastructure, computer systems, Social Security, and more.

Musk and DOGE have been a lightning rod for criticism due to the department's commitment to slashing waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government. Critics contend the organization has too much access to federal systems and should not be permitted to cancel federal contracts or make cuts to various agencies.

"They may characterize it as shooting from the hip, but it is anything but that," Musk said, noting the agency's approach to cuts is to "measure twice, if not thrice and cut once."

"Which is not to say that we don't make mistakes. If we were to approach this with the standard of making no mistakes at all, that would be like saying someone in baseball has got to bat a thousand. That's impossible. So when we do make mistakes, we correct them quickly and we move on," he added.

The top DOGE official also argued that when critics "attack DOGE, they never attack any of the specifics."

"They'll say what we're doing is somehow unconstitutional or illegal or whatever. We're like, 'well, which line of the cost savings do you disagree with?' And they can't point to any."

Musk explained the department is keeping Congress "informed" but claimed "the law does say that money needs to be spent correctly. It should not be spent fraudulently or wastefully. It's not contrary to Congress to avoid waste and fraud. It is consistent with the law and consistent with Congress."

Many Republican lawmakers have come out as staunch DOGE defenders, while several lawmakers from the other side of the political aisle remain skeptical critics of the department and its leader. 

 U.S. airlines were flying high less than two months ago on talk of a new golden age, as strong travel demand and tight industry-wide capacity raised the prospect of a multi-year profit boom.
But President Donald Trump's broad tariffs and a crackdown on government spending have upended that optimism. Tourists and companies have reduced spending amid rising economic uncertainty, forcing carriers to cut their first-quarter profit forecasts.
With travel a discretionary item for many consumers and businesses, growing odds of weak economic growth and high inflation have clouded the outlook for the remainder of the year as well.
The S&P 500 passenger airlines index (.SPLRCALI), opens new tab, is down about 15% this year and widely underperforming the broader S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab. Shares of Delta (DAL.N), opens new tab and United Airlines (UAL.O), opens new tab have fallen about 20% each this year. Discounter Frontier Airlines (ULCC.O), opens new tab is down 2%.
"Your first needs are food and shelter. And then, we're a little bit down the list of expenditures," said David Neeleman, CEO of low-cost carrier Breeze Airways, in an interview. "If you don't have a job, you're not going to go buy an airline ticket."
With demand slowing, airlines have started culling flights to avoid lowering fares and to protect margins. Frontier (ULCC.O), opens new tab, Delta, United, American Airlines (AAL.O), opens new tab, JetBlue (JBLU.O), opens new tab and Allegiant (ALGT.O), opens new tab, all trimmed their April-June quarter capacity in the past two weeks.
United CEO Scott Kirby has warned of a large drop in industry-wide capacity by the second half of August if demand does not rebound.
To be sure, bookings for premium and long-haul travel are holding up. United reported an 8% year-on-year jump in spring international bookings.
Some of the demand slowdown is also due to recent safety incidents. Amanda Demanda Law Group data shows airplane safety concerns reached an all-time high in February, with Google searches for "Are planes safe now?" up 900%.
Airlines expect the hit from safety incidents to fade soon. But they are less sure about economic pressures.

WARNING SIGNS

U.S. consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level in more than four years in March, with future expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions hitting a 12-year low, a Conference Board survey showed on Tuesday.
Air tickets sold through U.S. travel agencies fell 8% month-on-month in February after a 39% jump in January. Both corporate and leisure trips were down, Airlines Reporting Corp data showed last week.
Annual growth in passenger traffic slowed to 0.7% in March from 5% in January, according to U.S. Transportation Security Administration data.
Item 1 of 4 Travelers wait to check in at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City, U.S., April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
Weakening demand is hurting the industry's pricing power. Fares posted their first year-on-year decline in six months in February, according to data from the U.S. Labor Department.
"There's going to be some type of slowdown," Frontier CEO Barry Biffle said in an interview.
Airlines are still backing their full-year earnings estimates. But that could change if demand remains weak during summer, usually the industry's most profitable season.
Biffle said much depends on the labor market. "As long as the employment is good, the leisure customer will be fine," he said.
Jobless claims have only inched up, thus far. But inflationary worries are making travelers more cautious.
Jacob Brown, a 24-year-old Denver school teacher, is flying less, avoiding hotels, and spending less during his trips due to inflation.
Brown recently flew to Las Vegas but took the red-eye flight back to Denver to save on lodging.
"I'm only traveling when it's at an absolute minimal cost," he said.
Credit and debit card spending on airlines fell 7.2% in February from a month earlier and was the weakest in at least six months, according to Bank of America data.
Businesses are also sitting tight. The January-March quarter tends to be the busiest period after the July-September quarter for business travel, but bookings have been underwhelming.
Two weeks back, Delta said its corporate bookings growth had dropped into the low single digits after a 10% year-on-year increase in January.
United said this month its government-related travel bookings had halved, adding that reduced government spending was having a ripple effect on domestic tourism.
Gabe Rizzi, president of corporate travel agency Altour, said bookings from government contractors and companies in financial services, renewable energy, technology and manufacturing have declined as much as 10% from a year ago.
"A lot of government agencies and government subcontractors, which we service, are tightening up the bootstraps," Rizzi said.

President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on vehicle imports, starting early Thursday, could affect close to half of U.S. vehicle sales, resulting in higher prices, lower vehicle production and a reevaluation of manufacturing footprints.

The estimate of about 46% of deliveries being affected based on 2024 sales comes from financial analytics firm S&P Global Inc. But in practice, with the Trump administration also levying duties on major auto parts — from engines and transmissions to electrical components — no vehicle is likely to be spared.

"If you’re looking for a $25,000 to $35,000 vehicle," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of AutoForecast Solutions LLC, "today is the day to buy it."

The 25% auto tariffs come on top of any existing tariffs, which for many imported vehicles have been set at 2.5%. Beyond car imports, the new duties apply to certain parts, such as engines, transmissions, powertrains and electrical systems, according to Trump's proclamation, though more types of parts are expected to be added later. Cars will be tariffed starting Wednesday, though component levies could begin as late as May 3.

There are some exceptions. Vehicles that qualify for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement can have their tax bill reduced based on how much of the car's parts are from the United States. And auto parts that qualify for the USMCA will be exempt from tariffs, at least until the government establishes a process for how to tariff their value of non-U.S. content.

The policy advantages automakers with greater U.S. production like Tesla Inc., which doesn't import any vehicles for sale in the United States. After that is Ford Motor Co., which builds 80% of the vehicles it sells in the United States here. General Motors Co. builds 58% of what it sells here in the United States, and Stellantis' share is 59%.

Trump economic adviser Peter Navarro appeared to be referring to the Detroit Three's non-U.S. production in an interview Thursday on CNN.

The first thing that's really important to understand is that the Big Three so-called American companies — GM, Ford, Stellantis — they're not really American companies," he said.

Detroit's automakers did not respond to requests for comment Thursday from The Detroit News.

Near-term options

In the short term, automakers' options are limited. Suppliers, unable to absorb a 25% increase in cost, will seek to pass on at least some of the expense to their customers. Automakers and their dealers then will have to eat the increase or pass on some of it to consumers. That could affect demand and force production to slow down or even shut down.

In light of the expected 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Cox, ahead of Trump's announcement of 25% levies on all foreign-made autos and certain parts, lowered its annual sales forecast for 2025 to between 15.6 million and 16.3 million vehicles from 16.3 million.

“While we're still uncertain about exact policy outcomes, it looks like we are headed for the highest effective tariff rate since World War II for the auto market,” Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for dealer digital services firm Cox Automotive Inc., said during a webinar. “That is especially problematic, as such tariffs would be highly disruptive to North American vehicle production, resulting in tighter supply, higher prices, and lower production and sales.”

Smoke added that the automotive market has become more dependent on higher-income shoppers in recent years, and declines in the stock market are likely to result in less spending by consumers.

In anticipation of pricing pressure from tariffs, dealers have already made moves of preservation, according to Cox. Incentives, on average, have fallen closer to 7% of transaction prices after hitting 8% in December. Average transaction prices now are $48,039, up 1% from a year ago.

Looking closer, average advertised vehicle prices had declined through late 2024 and early this year, said Rick Wainschel, vice president of data and analytics at Cloud Theory, which tracks car inventory on dealer websites across the country. But prices began creeping up in late February and continued on a steady upward trajectory of $20 or $30 per day this month.

“There's anticipatory price actions and planning that the automakers are trying to contend with, with a lot of uncertainty thrown into the mix,” Wainschel said.

Once the 25% auto tariffs go into effect — and if they are kept in place — Wainschel said he expects the average prices to start increasing more dramatically, in the hundreds of dollars per day, rather than a few dozen. 

And within about a month of the tariffs taking effect, automakers may be forced not only to scale back their discounts, but start adjusting their suggested retail prices higher, he said. 

“It may be a little bit of a mix and match at the beginning, in terms of how that cost gets passed along," Wainschel said, "but eventually if (the tariffs are) long-lasting enough, if it becomes sort of more entrenched … that will lead to MSRP increases or formal surcharges."

Brands with higher inventory levels could be better insulated. Ford has the highest supply at more than 120 days, according to Cox. Toyota, at fewer than 40 days; Honda, with fewer than 60 days; and Chevrolet, with fewer than the 89-day national average, are more vulnerable.

Jim Seavitt, owner of the Village Ford dealership in Dearborn, said he's still hoping for carveouts for vehicle parts that cross back and forth over the border. And if not, he's got 90 days of inventory to help him wait out the situation.

"I think once the tariffs set in, people will start to realize if they wait, they’ll pay more money," Seavitt said. "They'll see he's not waffling, and he really means it this time, that it's more than a ruse to stop the drugs from coming in and immigrants."

No new vehicle exclusively uses parts made in the United States. But even if an automaker raises the price on a tariffed, foreign-built vehicle, that has implications for the value of the rest of its portfolio, said Warren Browne, an auto supplier consultant and former GM executive who worked at the carmaker for 40 years. It wouldn't make sense to price a Mexico-built Chevrolet Equinox too close to the larger Traverse, which is made at the Lansing Delta Township plant.

During the pandemic-induced global microchip shortage, automakers learned how to make money when selling fewer volumes.

“Scarcity offers less room to negotiate on price,” Fiorani said. “It’s better for the retailer, not the consumer.”

Although GM and Stellantis import some full-size trucks from outside the United States, many vehicles coming from places like Mexico and South Korea tend to be smaller because manufacturers can achieve better profit margins on lower-priced models in these countries with lower costs to do business, such as for labor.

"A large number of mainstream and entry-level models will be affected, raising the cost for young buyers, new buyers and young families," Fiorani said, "ultimately removing those choices from the market.”

Trump has emphasized consumer choice in the automotive market. He's criticized policies adopted under the Biden administration to incentivize electric vehicle sales and to require automakers to sell vehicles with fewer tailpipe emissions and better fuel economy as an "EV mandate."

Future impacts

Longer term, Trump has indicated these tariffs will remain permanently in place. If so, manufacturers could look at building new manufacturing plants in the United States or updating underutilized ones, Fiorani said. Constructing a new assembly plant can easily take three years and $2 billion.

Even retooling plants can be a one-to-two-year process and cost half a billion dollars, Fiorani said. And even with existing plants, there's no guarantee they have a line that can support the kind of vehicle an automaker would need to relocate.

"Vehicles are not homogeneous,” Fiorani said. "They sometimes have radically different structures. Stellantis has some room at its Toledo factory (in Ohio) in the building where it assembles Jeep Gladiators. It doesn’t have the room to move the Jeep Compass on the same assembly line because they don’t share any parts."

Stellantis' Jefferson North Assembly Plant in Detroit, producing the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Dodge Durango, is running under capacity in addition to the company's idled Jeep Cherokee plant in Belvidere, Illinois, which is slated to start production of a midsize truck in 2027 under the automaker's contract with the United Auto Workers.

Warren Truck Assembly Plant, home of the Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer, has also been a point of focus for the UAW, which has been seeking to bring back hundreds of employees on layoff after production there ended for the Ram 1500 Classic pickup. Kevin Gotinsky, who oversees the UAW’s Stellantis Department, says the plant should take on work building Ram pickups that were otherwise slated for a Mexican plant.

“They definitely will make moves and adjustments around (the tariffs), based on the impact,” Gotinsky said of Stellantis. “Warren Truck stands at the top of my list. We built the Ram truck there before. The plant can add two more shifts on. It’s an easy one to get launched back there. It’s not like they have to build a plant from green ground and start from scratch.”

GM executives have suggested the Chevrolet Silverado plant in Fort Wayne, Indiana, could absorb some production happening in Oshawa, Ontario, if needed. The Detroit automaker's Lansing Grand River and Tennessee Spring Hill assembly plants also have lower capacity. In addition, GM has idled the former Chevy Bolt plant in Orion Township, which is slated to launch electric pickup trucks in mid-2026. That timeframe represents a delay because of slower-than-expected demand for EVs.

Likewise, production from Ford's Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn is lower than planned. The automaker has some additional capacity at its plants in Flat Rock and Kentucky's Louisville, though retooling is expected to begin there next year for new product.

“If tariffs make corporations change their minds, something has to go,” Fiorani said. “There’s only so much space in these factories.”

The United States also could risk losing some production of mostly exported vehicles that use lots of imported parts, especially if other countries retaliate and impose their own levies. Fiorani gave the example of the BMW X5 built in South Carolina.

“If we thought the semiconductor issues were a problem," he said, "it’s only going to get worse.”

Noted economist Arthur Laffer warns in a new analysis that President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto imports could add $4,711 to the cost of a vehicle, adding that the proposed taxes could weaken the ability of U.S. automakers to compete with their foreign counterparts.

In the 21-page analysis obtained by The Associated Press, Laffer, whom Trump awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2019 for his contributions to economics, says the auto industry would be in a better position if the president preserved the supply chain rules with Canada and Mexico from his own 2019 USMCA trade pact.

The White House has temporarily exempted auto and parts imports under the USMCA from the tariffs starting on April 3 so that the Trump administration can put together a process for taxing non-U.S. content in vehicles and parts that fall under the agreement.

“Without this exemption, the proposed tariff risks causing irreparable damage to the industry, contradicting the administration’s goals of strengthening U.S. manufacturing and economic stability,” Laffer writes in the analysis. “A 25% tariff would not only shrink, or possibly eliminate, profit margins for U.S. manufacturers but also weaken their ability to compete with international rivals.”

While Trump’s tariff plans have frightened the stock market and U.S. consumers, Laffer’s analysis shows the administration has yet to convince even his favored economists that his import taxes would deliver as promised. The paper reminds Trump that it’s not too late to change course, specifically complimenting the USMCA negotiated in his first term as a “significant achievement.”

“The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has served as a cornerstone of President Trump’s first term and has quickly become a dominant feature of North American trade policy, fostering economic growth, stabilizing supply chains, and strengthening the U.S. auto industry,” Laffer writes.

The analysis says that the per vehicle cost without the USMCA exemption would be $4,711, but that figure would be a lower $2,765 if the exemptions were sustained.

Trump honored Laffer with the highest civilian honor 45 years after the economist famously sketched out on a napkin the “Laffer curve” showing that there’s an optimal tax rate for collecting revenue.

The bell-shaped curve indicated that there’s a tax rate so high that it could be self-defeating for generating tax revenues. Many Republicans embraced the curve as evidence that lower tax rates could generate stronger growth that would lead to higher tax revenues.

“Dr. Laffer helped inspire, guide, and implement extraordinary economic reforms that recognize the power of human freedom and ingenuity to grow our economy and lift families out of poverty and into a really bright future,” Trump said in awarding him the medal.

Laffer served on the economic policy advisory board of President Ronald Reagan, in addition to being a university professor. He has his own economic consultancy, Laffer Associates. In 1970, he was the first chief economist of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

Laffer also advised Trump during his 2016 presidential campaign and co-wrote a flattering book, “Trumponomics: Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy.”

Laffer Associates did not immediately respond to an email from the AP seeking comment Thursday night.

Trump maintains that 25% tariffs will cause more foreign and domestic automakers to expand production and open new factories in the United States. On Monday, he celebrated a planned $5.8 billion investment by South Korean automaker Hyundai to build a steel plant in Louisiana as evidence that his strategy would succeed.

Trump said the 25% auto tariffs would help to reduce the federal budget deficit while moving more production into the United States.

“For the most part, I think it’s going to lead cars to be made in one location,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. “For right now, the car would be made here, sent to Canada, sent to Mexico, sent to all over the place. It’s ridiculous.”

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