The United States is grappling with an escalating shortage of physicians, a problem that’s hitting rural and underserved communities the hardest, according to a new report. The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) projects that by 2036, the nation could face a deficit of up to 86,000 doctors, driven by an aging population, retiring physicians, and limited growth in medical training programs.
The AAMC’s latest analysis highlights a stark reality: demand for healthcare is surging as Americans live longer and develop more chronic conditions, yet the supply of doctors isn’t keeping pace. By 2036, the U.S. population is expected to grow by more than 8%, with the number of people over 65—those who typically need the most medical care—jumping by nearly 35%. Meanwhile, over a third of current doctors will reach retirement age within the next decade, further straining the system.
Specialty care is especially at risk. The report predicts significant shortfalls in fields like primary care, surgery, and other critical areas, with shortages ranging from 20,000 to 86,000 physicians depending on various factors. Rural regions and low-income urban areas, already struggling with access to care, are likely to bear the brunt of this crisis. In some counties, patients must travel hours to see a specialist—or any doctor at all.
A key bottleneck is the limited number of residency slots available to train new doctors. While medical school enrollment has increased in recent years, federal funding for residency programs has remained largely stagnant since the 1990s due to budget caps. This creates a chokehold on the pipeline, leaving many aspiring physicians unable to complete their training and enter practice.
The AAMC is urging Congress to act by boosting funding for graduate medical education and lifting the cap on residency positions. “We need bold solutions to ensure patients have access to the care they need,” said AAMC President Dr. David Skorton. “Without investment, this shortage will only deepen.”
Other factors are making matters worse. Physician burnout, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, has led some doctors to cut back hours or leave the profession entirely. At the same time, an aging workforce means more retirements are on the horizon, with no quick fix to replace them.
The consequences are already visible. In states like Missouri and Nevada, vast “healthcare deserts” leave residents with few options. Experts warn that without intervention, these gaps will widen, threatening the quality of care nationwide. For now, the clock is ticking as the U.S. healthcare system braces for a future with too few doctors to meet its growing needs.