The ‘low-hire, low-fire’ economy may be starting to shift with more layoffs—but not more hiring
If you've been feeling anxious about your job lately, you're not alone. Even if the unemployment rate looks decent on paper, something feels off in the job market right now. And new data suggests your gut might be right.
January's Job Cuts Hit a 16-Year High
Last month saw employers announce over 108,000 job cuts—the highest January total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That's more than double the cuts announced in January 2025, and triple what we saw in December.
To make matters worse, January also recorded the lowest hiring level for that month since 2009.
Why This Feels Different
Here's the problem: layoffs are ticking up, but hiring isn't following suit. That creates a tough situation where losing your job becomes scarier because finding a new one might take longer.
"Worker anxiety about layoffs is clearly high, even if it's not trending 1-to-1 with the hard data," explains Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor.
The numbers back up that anxiety. Worker confidence in their ability to find another job hit a record low of 44.9% in September. People are stuck—not because they love their current jobs, but because they're afraid of what happens if they leave.
The Big Names Making Headlines
You've probably seen the headlines. Amazon announced its largest-ever layoff round affecting 16,000 workers (on top of 14,000 cut in October). UPS is planning up to 30,000 operational cuts this year as it braces for fewer Amazon deliveries.
Together, Amazon and UPS account for over 40% of January's cut announcements.
What's Really Going On?
Despite the scary headlines, experts say the actual risk of losing your job hasn't increased dramatically. Many of these cuts are concentrated in specific sectors—mainly tech and logistics—where companies overhired during the pandemic boom.
"Some of this is still about a correction from that period of time," says Laura Ullrich, Director of Economic Research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
She describes these sectors as "low-hire, some-fire," while the overall economy remains "low-hire, low-fire."
It's also worth noting that some of these big numbers are forward-looking projections or plans to reduce headcount through attrition—not traditional mass layoffs happening all at once.
The Bigger Picture
The unemployment rate sits around 4%—technically healthy, though it did climb to a four-year high of 4.6% in November. Job openings dropped to a five-year low in December. And job growth has been inconsistent, with nonfarm payrolls going negative three times in six months.
The official January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is coming next week (delayed due to the government shutdown), which should give us a clearer picture.
The data tells one story: the job market isn't in crisis. But the lived experience tells another: people feel uncertain, stuck, and anxious.
"Even though the unemployment rate might be at a relatively healthy number and people are employed at a relatively healthy level, that doesn't mean people have to be happy about the job they're in," Zhao points out.
In this "low-hire, low-fire" environment, many workers are clinging to jobs they're not thrilled about simply because the alternative feels too risky. That uncertainty—the sense that the ground could shift at any moment—is what's really weighing on people.
And until hiring picks up, that feeling of being stuck isn't going away.