Recent U.S. wage data (primarily through June 2026) shows moderate nominal growth that is roughly keeping pace with or slightly lagging inflation in many measures, with the underlying trend described as benign for inflation pressures.
Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Q2 2026 (released July 31, 2026)
This is the broadest measure of labor costs (wages + benefits), preferred by policymakers because it adjusts for composition effects:
- Compensation costs for civilian workers rose **0.9%** (seasonally adjusted) from March to June 2026.
- Wages and salaries rose **0.9%**; benefit costs rose **1.0%**.
- Over the 12 months ending June 2026: total compensation up **3.4%**, wages and salaries up **3.2%**, benefits up **3.8%**.
- Private industry wages and salaries rose **0.9%** in the quarter and **3.1%** over the year (smallest annual gain since early 2021 in some comparisons). Inflation-adjusted private wages fell about **0.3–0.4%** over the year.
Private-sector wage gains were notable in goods-producing industries. Overall, the report indicated the jobs market was not a major driver of inflation.
Average Hourly Earnings (Current Employment Statistics – June 2026)
- Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees: **$37.64** in June 2026.
- Up **$0.13 (0.3%)** from May and roughly **3.5%** year-over-year.
- Average weekly earnings: about **$1,291**.
Real Earnings (inflation-adjusted, June 2026)
- Real average hourly earnings rose **0.8%** from May to June (nominal earnings +0.3% combined with a 0.4% drop in the CPI-U).
- Year-over-year (June 2025–June 2026): real hourly earnings up only **0.1%**; real weekly earnings up **0.3%**.
Other recent indicators
- **Usual weekly earnings** (Q2 2026): Median for full-time wage and salary workers was **$1,251** (not seasonally adjusted), up **4.6%** from a year earlier (vs. CPI-U gain of about 3.9%). Seasonally adjusted median was $1,258.
- Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (median individual wage change): edged up to **3.6%** in June 2026 (3-month overall). Job switchers saw stronger gains (~4.1%) than job stayers (~3.4%).
- Some private reports (e.g., Bank of America Institute, Payscale) noted stronger recent gains for lower-income workers narrowing gaps with higher earners in certain months, while technology continued to show above-average growth (~6.9% in one Q2 survey). Overall wage growth has moderated and is now roughly matching inflation in several measures.
Nominal wage growth has cooled to the low-to-mid 3% range annually and is no longer significantly outpacing inflation. Month-to-month real gains occurred in June due to a temporary CPI decline, but the longer-term real picture remains muted. The next major updates include the July Employment Situation (expected around August 7) and Real Earnings for July (around August 12). Data comes primarily from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.