Another ‘shock’ is coming for American jobs
Millions of workers will need to shift careers. Our country is unprepared.
Last summer, when a recent Harvard grad confided in me about his struggle to land a job—any job—I dismissed his worries. The market had softened, sure, but an Ivy League pedigree still seemed like a golden ticket. Months later, that conversation haunts me. As I increasingly rely on artificial intelligence tools for tasks once handled by interns or analysts, I see a storm brewing. The United States stands on the brink of an economic upheaval driven by AI, one that could dwarf the disruption of President Donald Trump’s second term—or even the “China shock” that reshaped manufacturing decades ago. AI promises immense benefits, but we’re woefully unprepared for the millions of workers who’ll need to reinvent their careers.The “China shock”—a term coined by economists in 2016—described how trade with China gutted American factory jobs, wiping out over 2 million positions between 1999 and 2011. It hit hard and fast, leaving rural communities reeling. AI’s impact, though, might unfold differently, more like the slow bleed of administrative jobs since 2000. Over 2 million secretarial and clerical roles vanished as technology quietly replaced retiring workers, a shift too gradual to spark national outrage. Younger workers adapted, sliding into customer service roles as they grew. But AI’s next wave won’t spare the college-educated urbanites who’ve long felt immune. Knowledge workers—think analysts, programmers, even writers—face a reckoning as tools like ChatGPT’s Deep Research churn out work once reserved for human minds.The scale is staggering. Research from the Bank of England suggests 47% of U.S. jobs—over 80 million—could be automated within a decade or two. Unlike the China shock’s blue-collar toll, this threatens white-collar hubs. Cities could see new opportunities emerge, but only if workers pivot fast. History offers some comfort: we survived trade shocks and tech shifts before. Yet AI’s speed and scope feel unprecedented. The industrial revolution unfolded over generations; this transformation moves at the pace of software updates.Our readiness is the real issue. The China shock exposed gaps in retraining and support—gaps we’ve barely closed. Today’s graduates, even from elite schools, sense the ground shifting. They’re not wrong to worry. AI’s already nibbling at entry-level gigs, and it’s only getting smarter. The upside—productivity gains, new industries—won’t materialize without a plan. We need a national strategy to reskill millions, not just a patchwork of coding bootcamps. Otherwise, we risk a lost generation, stuck between a fading old economy and an AI-driven future they can’t access.Trump’s trade wars won’t define this era; AI might. The question is whether we’ll let it blindside us—or start preparing now for the inevitable.
Millions of workers will need to shift careers. Our country is unprepared.
Last summer, when a recent Harvard grad confided in me about his struggle to land a job—any job—I dismissed his worries. The market had softened, sure, but an Ivy League pedigree still seemed like a golden ticket. Months later, that conversation haunts me. As I increasingly rely on artificial intelligence tools for tasks once handled by interns or analysts, I see a storm brewing. The United States stands on the brink of an economic upheaval driven by AI, one that could dwarf the disruption of President Donald Trump’s second term—or even the “China shock” that reshaped manufacturing decades ago. AI promises immense benefits, but we’re woefully unprepared for the millions of workers who’ll need to reinvent their careers.
The “China shock”—a term coined by economists in 2016—described how trade with China gutted American factory jobs, wiping out over 2 million positions between 1999 and 2011. It hit hard and fast, leaving rural communities reeling. AI’s impact, though, might unfold differently, more like the slow bleed of administrative jobs since 2000. Over 2 million secretarial and clerical roles vanished as technology quietly replaced retiring workers, a shift too gradual to spark national outrage. Younger workers adapted, sliding into customer service roles as they grew. But AI’s next wave won’t spare the college-educated urbanites who’ve long felt immune. Knowledge workers—think analysts, programmers, even writers—face a reckoning as tools like ChatGPT’s Deep Research churn out work once reserved for human minds.
The scale is staggering. Research from the Bank of England suggests 47% of U.S. jobs—over 80 million—could be automated within a decade or two. Unlike the China shock’s blue-collar toll, this threatens white-collar hubs. Cities could see new opportunities emerge, but only if workers pivot fast. History offers some comfort: we survived trade shocks and tech shifts before. Yet AI’s speed and scope feel unprecedented. The industrial revolution unfolded over generations; this transformation moves at the pace of software updates.
Our readiness is the real issue. The China shock exposed gaps in retraining and support—gaps we’ve barely closed. Today’s graduates, even from elite schools, sense the ground shifting. They’re not wrong to worry. AI’s already nibbling at entry-level gigs, and it’s only getting smarter. The upside—productivity gains, new industries—won’t materialize without a plan. We need a national strategy to reskill millions, not just a patchwork of coding bootcamps. Otherwise, we risk a lost generation, stuck between a fading old economy and an AI-driven future they can’t access.
Trump’s trade wars won’t define this era; AI might. The question is whether we’ll let it blindside us—or start preparing now for the inevitable.